http://www.oxan.com/worldnextweek/2008-03-27/TalkingPointFri-Ethnicity.aspx

OXFORD ANALYTICA (UK)

March 29 - April 4, 2008

Ethnic cleavages
Friday, March 28

Three recent events highlight the politically incendiary role of ethnicity:

Kenyan elections. The December general election in Kenya was a bloody
debacle, which returned President Mwai Kibaki to power through a victory of
questionable legitimacy. Violence flared after Kibaki's main challenger,
Raila Odinga, challenged the result. Under the surface of politically driven
'ethnic' clashes -- with Kalenjin, Luo and other militias attacking Kikiyu
communities in diverse areas of western Kenya, leading to reprisals by
Kikuyu militias there and in other parts of Kenya -- are longstanding
grievances related to the distribution of land and the centralisation of
political power. Politicians since independence, but in particular since the
return to multiparty politics in the early 1990s, have exploited these
grievances in ethnic terms.

Tibet. Riots by ethnic Tibetans in Lhasa and in other Tibetan areas
exemplify how ethnic differences can complicate profoundly state and nation
building. Chinese officials responsible for propaganda and state policy have
long maintained that Tibetans are a well-integrated ethnic minority within
China's social fabric. Yet most Tibetans see themselves as quite distinct
from other Chinese; a small minority continue to seek independence on that
basis within the geographic borders agreed during the Simla Convention of
1914. Significantly, economic development has apparently not diminished the
desire among many Tibetans for ethnic self-determination. This tendency may
be counter-intuitive, but it is not uncommon elsewhere in the world.

Kosovo. The recent outbreak of violence in northern Kosovo exemplifies
another strain of ethnic-based conflict. The Serb minority in Kosovo is
refusing to accept the legitimacy of the self-declared government in
Pristina or the authority of the ethnic Albanian-dominated police force. The
UN and NATO are providing some security, but this cannot represent a stable,
long-term solution. All Serbs, both in the province of Kosovo and in Serbia
proper, believe that Kosovo is historically part of Serbia and see Western
acquiescence in Pristina's unilateral declaration of independence as a
violation of national sovereignty -- even though Albanians make up the vast
majority of the population of the province, which used to enjoy autonomy
under the 1974 Yugoslav constitution. Some Serbs hope to make northern
Kosovo ungovernable from Pristina -- perhaps ultimately allowing Belgrade to
hang on to this slice of territory.

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