http://www.kommersant.com/p874821/NATO_expansion_summit/

KOMMERSANT (RUSSIAN FEDERATION)

Apr. 02, 2008

North Atlantic Blockade

// They won't let Putin turn Bucharest into another Munich

Mikhail Kasyanov will speak at Bucharest, Vladimir Putin won't
The NATO summit opens today in Bucharest and it may be the most scandalous
summit in the organization's history. Ukraine and Georgia will make last
ditch efforts to receive membership action plans from the alliance, and
Russia and its key economic partners will try to stop them. The format of
the Russia-NATO meetings will not give Putin a chance to make another Munich
speech. The presidents of Georgia and Ukraine and former Russian prime
minister Mikhail Kasyanov will have their say though.
Anti-Munich

Even before the summit began, Russian President Vladimir Putin's
participation in it was a source of controversy. The Russian leader is to
arrive in Bucharest on Thursday to participate in a meeting of the
Russia-NATO council on Friday, the summit's final day. The day before the
summit began, however, the Russian side accused the alliance of intending to
deprive Putin of the chance to be heard.

Notably, Russian Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin, when asked in an
interview published in Moskovsky komsomolets newspaper on March 31 if the
Russian president would make another Munich speech in Bucharest, stated that
would be impossible because of the different format of the NATO summit. "The
Munich speech was public and addressed not so much to persons making the
decisions as to the people. In Bucharest everything will be different. The
entire discussion of the Russia-NATO council will be in the format that it
is usually held in - closed." But in the evening of the same day, Rogozin
expressed a different point of view.

World Practice

Rogozin noted that the Ukraine-NATO and Russia-NATO councils were set up
differently. In the first instance, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop
Scheffer and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko will deliver opening
addresses. In the latter instance, only de Hoop Scheffer will. After the
first council, de Hoop Scheffer and Yushchenko will hold a joint press
conference, while, after the second, de Hoop Scheffer alone will hold a
press conference. Rogozin concluded that "the leadership of the alliance has
chosen a course toward curtailing the discussion. The Russian president will
be unable speak publicly about important questions of world politics. It
looks incorrect and all attempts to cite the rules are out of place."

At NATO headquarters, Kommersant was assured that the format of the
Russia-NATO council was indeed traditional. In 2002, that functions of that
organ were reformatted at Russia's initiative. Previously, the NATO
secretary general and the Russian representative sat together on the podium
and representatives of the NATO member countries sat at a common table. In
2002, Russia became an equal partner of NATO and its representative (who
will be Putin in Bucharest) now sits at the round table with the presidents
of the member countries, who are seated in alphabetic order by name of
country - Putin will sit between Romanian President Trajan Basescu and Prime
Minister of the United Kingdom Gordon Brown. Since 2002, the NATO secretary
general has been the sole chairman of the council. He opens the meeting,
after which the press leaves the auditorium and the council members discuss
their business. "Since Russia is an equal member of the Russia-NATO council,
it would be unethical in relation to the other leaders to give Vladimir
Putin the floor along with the secretary general," a spokesman at NATO said.
"Then President Bush, President Sarkozy or Chancellor Merkel might have the
desire to speak. Then there would be no constructive discussion at all,
everyone will speak exclusively to the public."

An official NATO representative said that all meetings since 2002 have taken
place away from journalists and so far the Russian side (as Rogozin admitted
in his interview with Moskovsky komsomolets) had not objected. In addition,
the NATO press service told Kommersant, they had been informed that Putin
intended to hold his own press conference immediately after de Hoop
Scheffer's. "And why would NATO invite Vladimir Putin to the summit, if it
didn't wish to listen to him?" the spokesman asked.

The format of Ukraine-NATO meetings is different by tradition. Ukraine is
not an equal partner, and Yushchenko can appear side-by-side with the NATO
secretary general twice before journalists.

The disagreement did not stop there. Traditionally, the participants in the
council have passed a joint declaration at the end of it. But it is not
clear what they can agree on. Russia and the NATO countries have differing
views on all the principle questions (SALT, missile defense, Kosovo).
Another problem is the initiative to create Russia-NATO council public
forum, which would carry out informational work on the cooperation between
Moscow and Brussels, that is, partially, strive to improve NATO's image in
Russia. For that purpose, Russia and the alliance are supposed to spend
joint funds on conferences, seminars and surveys on issues of Euro-Atlantic
security. Moscow is not terribly interested in the project, however, fearing
that NATO will use it to create "undependable" noncommercial organizations.

The only real joint accomplishment Russia and NATO have is an agreement to
simplify the procedure for overland transport of NATO cargo to Afghanistan.
According to information obtained by Kommersant, Russia is considering not
issuing any declaration after the council session if the discussion takes a
bad turn. Moscow's charges over the format of Putin's Bucharest speech can
be considered a warm up for just such a turn.

Anti-Summit

A conference being held March 1-3 by the Romanian Foreign Ministry, the
German Marshall Fund and Chatham House may turn into a second scandal at the
NATO summit. The NATO forum is structured in such a way that the majority of
the leaders attending it will not have a chance to make an effective speech,
just as Putin is unable to. But some of them will speak from the podium of
the Bucharest conference. The presidents of the United States, Latvia,
Afghanistan and Estonia, prime ministers of Canada and Romania and foreign
ministers of Poland and Turkey are speaking there today.

Tomorrow will be the most unpleasant day for the Russian delegation,
however. It will begin with a discussion entitled "Does Ukraine Need NATO,"
with two former Ukrainian foreign ministers and members of the Rada from the
Party of the Regions and Our Ukraine Konstantin Grishchenko and Boris
Tarasyuk taking part. Then the topic of missile defense in Europe will be
raised, with chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs
Konstantin Kosachev, Polish Defense Minister Bogdan Klich and Czech Deputy
Prime Minister Alexander Vondra invited to the discussion.

The last and most intriguing debate will be dedicated to Russia itself.
Former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, State Duma member Sergey
Markov and member of the British parliament from the Conservative Party
Baroness Neville-Jones will take part. Thus, Kasyanov will have the
opportunity to speak before a broad audience in Bucharest, and Putin will
not.

Another distinguishing feature of the Bucharest conference is that Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili took part in its opening. He was also given
the chance to express himself in the so-called night session, which had not
begun at the moment this story was filed. The press service of the Georgian
president told Kommersant that Saakashvili will take that opportunity to
urge the opponents of giving his country a membership action plan to change
their minds.

Anti-NATO

The 26 members of NATO have two questions to settle at the summit. They will
accept three new members into their ranks that have gone through all the
preparatory steps for alliance membership. They are Albania, Macedonia and
Croatia. Then they will respond to the petitions of Georgia and Ukraine,
whose authorities simultaneously asked to be given membership action plans.
There is no controversy over accepting the new members. Only Greek
authorities are disturbing the idyll there. Since the collapse of
Yugoslavia, Greek authorities have been strongly opposed to Macedonia
calling itself Macedonia, since a region with the same name existed as part
of the ancient Greek world. A compromise is likely to be found today, since
Macedonia in NATO documents is already known as "The Former Yugoslavian
Republic of Macedonia."

The situation with the membership action plans for Ukraine and Georgia is
ambiguous, although the countries tried from the beginning to unite their
efforts to obtain their passes to NATO membership. Ukraine filed its
application for a membership action plan with de Hoop Scheffer in January of
this year. A month later, Georgia did the same. "I will not hide the fact
that we are carefully coordinating our actions with Viktor Yushchenko and
Yulia Tymoshenko," Saakashvili told Kommersant. "Much unites our countries,
and that is not just because President Yushchenko is my son's godfather. Our
interests simply coincide."

The interests of Georgia and Ukraine clearly coincide with those of the U.S.
as well. Washington willingly took on patronage of those countries. Last
month, when Georgia's application for a membership action plan had just
reached Brussels, the American Senate vote unanimously in favor of a
resolution in support of NATO membership action plans for Ukraine and
Georgia. Among the authors of the resolution was presidential favorite
Barack Obama. They call on U.S. authorities to do everything possible that
Ukraine and Georgia should become members of the alliance as soon as
possible. U.S. President George W. Bush received Saakashvili at the White
House in March and promised to support his efforts to draw closer to the
alliance. He made the same promise to Yushchenko yesterday in Kiev, where he
told the press after his talks with Yushchenko that he had spoken to Putin
by telephone recently and told him that he was "going to work as hard as I
can to see to it that Ukraine and Georgia are accepted into MAP," but Russia
had "nothing to fear" because NATO is a peaceful organization that helps
democracies.

Bush praised Kiev yesterday for the active role it played in NATO
operations. He called Ukraine practically the only non-NATO state that is
supporting all the alliance's missions, including in Afghanistan and Iraq.
He was clearly exaggerating, since Ukraine withdrew its peacekeepers from
Iraq in 2005 and never had a military presence in Afghanistan, only civilian
specialists.

It is possible that the American president intentionally overstated Kiev's
services before the summit to make an impression on the opponents of Ukraine
and Georgia's integration into NATO, since there is no consensus on the
matter within NATO. Fundamental NATO members such as Germany, France and The
Netherlands oppose the former Soviet republics' membership and have
expressed their opposition repeatedly in recent days. They point out that
there is no consensus within Ukraine on its NATO intentions, and Georgia has
unresolved territorial conflicts.

Saakashvili assessed the motives of the Western European countries in an
interview with Kommersant. "European business has many connections with
Russia and it, of course, pays attention to negative relations with Moscow.
But Europe has already made such mistakes in the last century and paid
heavily for them. The current generation of European politicians remembers
those mistakes and is not likely to repeat them," he said.

Mikhail Zygar, Vladimir Solovyev

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