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INTER PRESS SERVICE

BALKANS: Now Divided by NATO Membership
Analysis by Vesna Peric Zimonjic

BELGRADE, Apr 8 (IPS) - Security issues in the Balkans came under the
spotlight once again at the NATO summit in Bucharest, where some nations
from the region were invited to join the alliance, some remained in the
waiting room, and some like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia,
outside.

Albania and Croatia received the invitation to join NATO as expected. "You
all come from a region that has been affected by terrible conflicts until
only a few years ago, and that is why your membership has special
significance," said NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

The disintegration of former Yugoslavia took more than 100,000 lives in the
1991-95 wars. Serbia's violent response to ethnic Albanian rebellion in its
southern province Kosovo, and the Kosovo Albanian drive for independence led
to the first North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military intervention
in Europe, in 11 weeks of heavy bombing in 1999.

The situation has improved greatly since the wars, but the consequences are
still felt through poor economic development, slow reconciliation, and the
presence of 15,000 peacekeeping NATO troops in Kosovo, that recently
declared independence from Serbia.

A third Balkans nation -- Macedonia -- met the membership criteria, but its
membership was put off until it settles a name dispute with Greece.
Macedonia has the same name as a region in Greece, and the Greek government
is demanding a change.

With Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro there will be "intensified dialogue",
a step towards a Membership Action Plan (MAP) that precedes admittance to
the alliance.

All nations in the region, including Serbia, have been members of the
Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme, also a precondition for NATO
membership. Accordingly, they have all significantly scaled down their
armies and equipment, abandoned draft, and set up forces that in no way
resemble those that waged the bloody wars of the 1990s.

But Serbia, the biggest nation in the region, has quietly reduced many
changes within the PfP.

Serbia's coalition government collapsed in March following declaration of
independence by Kosovo. The nationalist section of the ruling coalition, led
by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, could not agree with the
reform-oriented Democrats of President Boris Tadic on the nation's future.

Kostunica stood for cutting all ties with countries that recognise
independent Kosovo. Tadic's Democrats were against such an approach. Serbia
faces new elections in May.

The Serbian Prime Minister repeatedly defines Kosovo as a "NATO-created
illegal state", and often reminds Serbs of the NATO bombing over the Kosovo
issue. He says such an organisation cannot be a "friend of Serbs". In the
election campaign, his Democratic Party of Serbia stands for "neutrality" in
military matters.

The outgoing ministers from the Democratic Party, who have been in coalition
with Kostunica's party, try to calm down such rhetoric both at home and
abroad.

"We prevented war in Kosovo," Serbian Defence Minister Dragomir Sutanovac
said in an interview with the Vecernje Novosti newspaper. Sutanovac comes
from the Democratic Party of President Tadic. "Some (in the government)
wanted us to help Serbs in Kosovo by sending arms and ammunition," he said.

The biggest opposition, the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
goes so far as to supporting extremists who speak of armed battles for the
return of Kosovo to Serbia.

SRS leaders say they are ready to offer Russia bases for its long-range
missiles in Serbia as an answer to the U.S. moves to set up bases in eastern
Europe. The heated atmosphere in Serbia after Kosovo declared independence
in February has intensified such arguments.

But for Kosovo, the invitation to Albania to join NATO was seen as a
historic moment for the whole region.

"Albania, by achieving the democratic norms necessary for NATO membership,
has proven itself to be a factor of peace, security and stability for the
region," Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci said in a telegram sent to his
Albanian counterpart Sali Berisha.

Military analyst Aleksandar Radic says two issues stand out in view of the
NATO enlargement. "First, Croatia is now being viewed as leader in the
region, due to the current instability in Serbia," Radic told IPS. "Second,
Serbia's behaviour is biased, paradoxical. A large segment of its political
elite (nationalists) is against NATO, while we're almost surrounded by NATO.

"Besides, it's NATO that should take care of the security of Serbs in
Kosovo. This speaks about non-understanding of circumstances on that part of
the elite. However, things will change when the new political reality is
accepted."

According to Radic, unlike in the cold war era, NATO is more of a political
organisation now, with "less sabre rattling and counting of brigades,
divisions, planes, battleships.

"To become a member of the European Union (EU), each and every former
eastern European nation had to be part of NATO, and all countries in the
Balkans have bid for EU membership in the coming years."

In Croatia, the invitation to NATO membership was viewed as major victory
for the nation. Prime Minister Ivo Sanader told local media from Bucharest
that "this is the best news, the best option for a stable and secure future
of the region."

But not all Croats shared his enthusiasm or that of President Stipe Mesic,
who said the invitation was "the recognition of all reform efforts and of
the foreign policy of Croatia."

Many NGOs staged peaceful rallies during the visit of U.S. President George
W. Bush to Zagreb on Friday and Saturday following the NATO summit in
Bucharest.

Anti-NATO activists have set up a Committee for NATO Referendum, demanding a
say by citizens in membership of the alliance. They have collected some
70,000 signatures out of 400,000 needed to start the legal procedure for a
referendum. (END/2008)

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