With Compliments,
Živadin Jovanović
Belgrade Forum for a World of Equals
Kneza Miloša 82
11000 Beograd
Tel. + 381 11 26 44 293
www.beoforum.rs
============Zivadin Jovanovic
President of the Belgrade Forum for a World of Equals
The Balkan in 2020: region of crisis or peace[1]
We all here are devoted to peace, stability and progress for all countries in
the Balkan. In trying to project the future, however, we should consider, as
objectively as possible, inheritance of the past, to assess realistically
existing problems, to identify trends and key political players.
My starting remark and primary cause of concern for the future of the Balkan
stems from the fact that the present set up of relations and solutions, current
trends are not based on the compromise of genuine, legitimate interest of the
countries and societies of the region but predominantly on the pressures, will
and interest of out-of -Balkan centers of political, economic and military
might.
Inheritance of the past, especially of the civil wars in Croatia and Bosnia and
Herzegovina, of separatism and terrorism in Kosovo and Metohija and of NATO
aggression on Serbia (FRY) 1999 remain causes of great concern and, naturally,
do occupy our attention and energy.
Economic, cultural, informative, social and other links among the former
Yugoslav republic cut during the crisis function on a rather modest level
today. In any case, far below potentials and needs of the region. Cooperation
and free flow of goods, people, ideas, culture, capital should definitely be
encouraged, obstacles removed, reciprocity of interest duly respected.
Unilateral concessions, especially expected from Serbia, are not justified.
New international borders while not general problem, in a number of instances
are still to be defined, including parts of Serbia-Croatian border on Danube.
International standards should be respected in accepting border line.
With the distraction of Yugoslavia, in addition to old ones, new national
minorities have been created. Standards of their human, political and national
rights in a number of instances are disregarded. Serbs in Slovenia, Croatia and
Montenegro continue to be discriminated. Appropriate reactions and guidelines
from OSCE, CE or EU institutions would be quite appropriate and necessary.
Serbiais still hosting over 200.000 displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija,
mainly Serbs, and close to 300.000 Serb refugees from Croatia and Bosnia and
Herzegovina. This accounts to about 7-8 percent of the total population of
Serbia provoking not only socio-economic but political problems, too. Members
of neither of the two groups are permitted to exercise their basic right to
free and safe return to places of their origin. Serbs in Croatia although
promised territorial autonomy, are deprived of same basic individual right such
as right to private ownership of their houses and apartments. There is need for
greater involvement of appropriate international institutions, including donors
in securing conditions for free, safe and return in dignity.
It has been noted today that tension prevails in Northern Kosovo and Kosovska
Mitrovica. While this is true, it should not be ommited that there is tension
also all over the Province provoked by continuous daily attacks on Serbs,
telephone and electricity services cuts and various other forms of
intimidation.
Furthermore, it should be noted that there is resentment all over Serbia
because of illegal unilateral proclamation of separation of Kosovo and Metohija
and particularly because of the recognition of that illegal act by major
western countries (USA, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy, Canada).
Serbiadoes not and cannot recognize illegal secession of the part of its
sovereign territory and considers the status of the Province of Kosovo and
Metohija a serious open issue yet to be resolved respecting basic principles of
the international law, UN decisions and Constitution of Serbia as a sovereign
state. Such a position is supported by major part of International community,
including some members of EU (Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovak Republic and
Cyprus). New negotiations on the status seem to be unavoidable. Any calculation
on softening the official Serbia Government position could turn to be
counterproductive. Perhaps not so much because of the Government’s firmness,
but first of all because compromise is better investment in Serbia’s internal
stability, thus in the lasting peace and stability of the Balkan, than any
imposed solution.
Constitutional set up of Bosnia and Herzegovina is part and parcel of the
Dayton-Paris Peace Agreement. Attempts to change this system unilaterally, or
by blackmailing the leadership of Republica Srpska, are jeopardizing stability
and development.
Applying outside pressures to impose centralization of power in Bosnia and
Herzegovina, in one hand, and to oblige more countries of the world to
recognize illegal secession of Kosovo and Metohija, in the other, is another
example of double standards policy.
I am convinced that there is no substitute to either Dayton-Paris Peace
Agreement nor to UN SC resolution 1244. These should be considered as chief
prerequisites of the Balkan as a zone of peace and prosperity 2020, and beyond.
Flattering Serbia as a regional leader and “Serbian Government the most
democratic and the most proeuropean”, on one side, and at the same time
imposing endless concessions on account of the legitimate national interest of
Serbia (Kosovo and Metohija, Republica Srpska) could hardly be a way to lasting
peace and stability.
Peace and stability in Europe are indivisible. Developments in Europe and
developments in the Balkan have been and remain inter-conected.
It has been noted that the future of the Balkan lies in the hands of the Balkan
countries. But one of the basic problems in the region remains to be excessive
involvement of out-of-the-region centers. Considering that Bosnia and
Herzegovina and the Province of Kosovo and Metohija continue to be
international (UN) protectorates, that the governments in the most of the
countries in the region owe their loyalty to the West which helped them various
means to come to power, it is rather questionable what the regional factors can
do themselves, what are real margins for them to find compromises of the
genuine regional interests.
Putting an end to the protectorate status of Bosnia and Herzegovina would be
important step in good direction. After 15 years of peace and international
governance, local institutions and politicians must be capable of working,
compromising and running the country themselves.
EU appears to be key partner of the Balkan states. How long will last the
current financial, economic and institutional crisis in EU? What conclusions
Brussels may draw from up to now enlargements of the EU membership? Answering
these questions is a precondition to asses realistically prospects for EU
membership of a number of Balkan countries.
Some current trends in the Balkan, especially in its western part, should be
noted as relevant to the subject.
Democratization and transition has left, among others, profound social
divisions and tensions, extremely high rate of unemployment, corruption, and
organized crime. These tendencies are not assets for peace and stability. To
alleviate the roots of these tendencies require political will, relevant
strategies, recourses, including financial, and – time.
Rise of separatism and territorial fragmentation, especially affecting Serbia
and Serbian nation, in one hand, and centralization, unitarization of certain
other countries, notably Bosnia and Herzegovina, are examples of double
standards policy. Putting aside such a policy would definitely enhance
prospects of peace and stability.
Proliferation of puppet sates with unsustainable economies, national minorities
with uneven level of their rights, political parties based on ethnic and
religious criteria and refugees and displaced persons with the lack of
political will to provide conditions for free and safe return to their homes;
Expansion of Islamism not as a religion or culture, but as overall social and
governmental system. Some Islamite leaders do consider Balkan as a spring board
for further expansion. (Vehabist groups, Islamic extremist organizations have
been uncovered recently in a number of Balkan countries);
It should be noted that in the period of the last twenty years the Balkan has
been experimental ground for new doctrines and precedents in international
relations:
- NATO aggression of Yugoslavia in 1999, contrary to basic principles of
International Law, without approval of UN SC;
- Unilateral proclamation of Independence of Kosovo and Methija in 2008, while
the Provence was under UN mandate, without UN permission or approval, and
contrary to the Constitution and will of Serbia;
These precedents have left negative consequences not only in the Balkan but in
Europe and worldwide.
In my opinion, Serbia with its geostrategic position and resources is
capacitated and willing to play its role in achieving sustainable stability,
peace and development in the Balkans. But Serbia is faced with serious
problems. First of all, stagnation of the socio-economic development, about one
million of unemployed, 700.000 people billow the bottom line of poverty,
disregard of her legitimate national interest.
Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty is not jeopardized by illegal
unilateral secession of Kosovo and Metohija, only, but such tendencies are
noticeable in some other parts (Vojvodina, Raska, Southern districts).
Recently The Group of Friends of Sandzak (Raska) was established in Belgrade
composed of the ambassadors of USA, Germany, Britain and Italy! What would be
real political objective of such a move? These ambassadors surely have been
welcomed to Belgrade as friends of Serbia and they are expected to behave as
such. Preferring, or undermining any part of Serbia is not undiplomatic only,
but disregarding friendship and hospitality.
Of course, I am aware that aforesaid is more a list of open problems as I see
them, than a list of prescriptions how to resolve them. But any serious job
starts from inventory. Thank you.
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