*The crucial takeaway, from Dr. John Ioannidis:* *Our Santa Clara seroprevalence study is now out. It shows 50-85 times underestimated * *number of infections, therefore 50-85 times overestimated infection rate fatality. True * *infection rate fatality is in the ballpark of seasonal influenza.*
*Please help make this widely known.* *MCM* COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California Eran Bendavid, Bianca Mulaney, Neeraj Sood, Soleil Shah, Emilia Ling, Rebecca Bromley-Dulfano, Cara Lai, Zoe Weissberg, Rodrigo Saavedra, James Tedrow, Dona Tversky, Andrew Bogan, Thomas Kupiec, Daniel Eichner, Ribhav Gupta, John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463 This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should *not* be used to guide clinical practice. <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/what-unrefereed-preprint> - Abstract <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1> - Info/History <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.article-info> - Metrics <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.article-metrics> - - - Preview PDF <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf+html> Abstract Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections. *Click on the link for the rest.* -- If you appreciate News From Underground, please consider making a donation — either a one-time gift or a monthly subscription: http://markcrispinmiller.com/support/ Thank you for your support. Ways to unsubscribe: 1) send a blank email to [email protected] PLEASE NOTE: you must unsubscribe using the SAME email with which you subscribed 2) go to http://groups.google.com/group/newsfromunderground and click on the "Unsubscribe or change membership" link in the yellow bar at the top of the page, then click the "Unsubscribe" button on the next page. For more News From Underground, visit http://markcrispinmiller.com --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "News From Underground" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/newsfromunderground/CAGxB6W8LyZB%3DyH5tuNWPWd%2B3v9jdjy8y26x-8taT%2BbzCY%2BhuWg%40mail.gmail.com.
