1. Pennsylvania Real-Time News <https://www.pennlive.com/news>

UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals
will shift back to normal
Updated Apr 30, 7:52 PM; Posted Apr 30, 5:02 PM
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html

[image: Dr. Donald Yealy]

Dr. Donald Yealy of UPMC in Pittsburgh, Pa. speaks to reporters during an
online briefing on April 30, 2020
By David Wenner | [email protected]
<http://connect.pennlive.com/staff/dwenner/posts.html>

A UPMC doctor on Thursday made a case the death rate for people infected
with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25% — far lower than the
mortality rates of 2-4% or even higher cited in the early days of the
pandemic.

Dr. Donald Yealy based it partly on studies of levels of coronavirus
antibodies detected in people in New York and California, and partly on
COVID-19 deaths in the Pittsburgh region. The studies found that 5-20% of
people had been exposed to the coronavirus, with many noticing only mild
illness or none at all, he said.


“We’ve learned that way more people, far, far more people have actually
been exposed to the infection without any knowledge of it. That makes the
overall death rate much lower,” said Yealy, who is UPMC’s chair of
emergency medicine. “Many people just didn’t feel sick at all and recovered
without difficulty.”

Yealy went on to offer a hypothetical scenario of 3% of Allegheny County
residents being exposed — a conservative number compared to the findings of
the New York and California studies.

That would mean about 36,000 people in Allegheny have been exposed to the
coronavirus. With 94 COVID-19 deaths in the county as of Thursday, it would
mean 0.25 percent of people exposed to the coronavirus had died, he said.

“There is a big difference between 0.25% mortality and 7%,” Yealy said.

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