*They can't possibly know of any "second wave" so early. * *MCM* No evidence of a second wave in Germany after lockdown lifted https://news.yahoo.com/no-evidence-second-wave-germany-134011367.html
<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/> Justin Huggler , The Telegraph <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/>•May 1, 2020 [image: A full high Street as shoppers are out and about in Berlin as the German economy moves out of partial lockdown from the Corona Virus. Wlimersdorfer Strasse, Charlottenburg. - Craig Stennett for the Telegraph] A full high Street as shoppers are out and about in Berlin as the German economy moves out of partial lockdown from the Corona Virus. Wlimersdorfer Strasse, Charlottenburg. - Craig Stennett for the Telegraph All eyes have been on Germany this week <https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/germany-leaving-lockdown-soonmerkel-warns-eu-coronavirus-summit/>, amid claims the country is facing a second wave of coronavirus infections because it lifted its lockdown too soon. But the German government figures cited as evidence of a second wave show nothing of the sort. Even Dominic Raab got in on the act, telling a Number 10 press conference “Having relaxed restrictions in Germany over the past week, they have seen a rise in the transmission rate of coronavirus”. The problem, as German government scientists have been at pains to point out, is that it’s simply too early to know anything about the effects of lifting lockdown on transmission rates — because there is no reliable data yet. The figure that made international headlines this week <https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/23/germany-leaving-lockdown-soonmerkel-warns-eu-coronavirus-summit/> was a brief rise in the German reproduction number, or R — the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to. The reproduction number had been falling for weeks, so when it rose above government targets to 1.0 on Monday, it was seized on as evidence of a second wave. But as Prof Lothar Wieler of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI) explained this week, the rise didn’t include data on the effects of lifting lockdown. The only reliable data we have is the daily deaths and cases rate: It takes time for new infections to be fed into the complex calculations that produce the R number. Infections don’t show up immediately. Most people aren’t tested for the coronavirus until they start to show symptoms, which can take days to appear. Tests take time to process, and there is a further delay before positive results are reported to the authorities. *Click on the link for the rest.* -- If you appreciate News From Underground, please consider making a donation — either a one-time gift or a monthly subscription: http://markcrispinmiller.com/support/ Thank you for your support. Ways to unsubscribe: 1) send a blank email to [email protected] PLEASE NOTE: you must unsubscribe using the SAME email with which you subscribed 2) go to http://groups.google.com/group/newsfromunderground and click on the "Unsubscribe or change membership" link in the yellow bar at the top of the page, then click the "Unsubscribe" button on the next page. For more News From Underground, visit http://markcrispinmiller.com --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "News From Underground" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/newsfromunderground/CAGxB6W8Yo9TALJM5RZdXG8801t69kfPotYCfpGGmiM1PPH_Epw%40mail.gmail.com.
