Covid-19: “Staggering number” of extra deaths in community is not explained
by covid-19BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1931 (Published
13 May 2020)Cite this as: BMJ 2020;369:m1931

   - Article <https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931>


   1. Shaun Griffin


   Author affiliations <https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931#>

Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and
Wales can be explained by covid-19, new data have shown.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data,1
<https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931#ref-1> which cover deaths in
hospitals, care homes, private homes, hospices, and elsewhere, show that
6035 people died as a result of suspected or confirmed covid-19 infection
in England and Wales in the week ending 1 May 2020 (where deaths were
registered up to 9 May), a decline of 2202 from the previous week.

Although the number of deaths in care homes has fallen for the second week
in a row, more covid related deaths are being reported in care homes than
in hospitals and are tailing off more slowly.

However, David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and
Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that covid-19
did not explain the high number of deaths taking place in the community.

At a briefing hosted by the Science Media Centre on 12 May he explained
that, over the past five weeks, care homes and other community settings had
had to deal with a “staggering burden” of 30 000 more deaths than would
normally be expected, as patients were moved out of hospitals that were
anticipating high demand for beds.

Of those 30 000, only 10 000 have had covid-19 specified on the death
certificate. While Spiegelhalter acknowledged that some of these “excess
deaths” might be the result of underdiagnosis, “the huge number of
unexplained extra deaths in homes and care homes is extraordinary. When we
look back . . . this rise in non-covid extra deaths outside the hospital is
something I hope will be given really severe attention.”

He added that many of these deaths would be among people “who may well have
lived longer if they had managed to get to hospital.”

*Click on the link for the rest: *https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

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