*It was the level of immunity among Norwegians that made all the difference;* *and so one could "achieve the same effect—and avoid part of the unfortunate* *repercussions (of lockdown)—by not closing. But, instead, staying open with*
*precautions to stop the spread."* *In short, Norway's health authority essentially concludes that Sweden had the * *right idea—**and so did Taiwan and Japan.* *MCM* MAY 29, 2020 <https://unlockthelockdown.com/norwegian-health-authority-report-this-is-explosive/> BY KEITH <https://unlockthelockdown.com/author/keith/> Norwegian Health Authority Report. This is Explosive! https://unlockthelockdown.com/norwegian-health-authority-report-this-is-explosive/ Norway has been hailed as almost the ultimate example of a successful lockdown which controlled the disease. Now the Norwegian Health Authority has released a sixty-page report on what really happened. The key statements are: “Our assessment now — is that one could probably achieve the same effect — and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions (of lockdown) — by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.” and “It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on March 12, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.” In short, what this means is exactly what has already been stated on this page, at Lie No 5 in the *Top Twelve Lies* article here <https://unlockthelockdown.com/the-top-twelve-lies-about-covid19/>. Namely that there was already a substantial level of immunity in Norway, which was what caused their “*good result*” rather than the lockdown. For a full(ish) explanation of basic epidemiology read our *Epidemiology for Dummies* article here <https://unlockthelockdown.com/epidemiology-for-dummies-what-you-ought-to-know/>. In brief, the basic R number, called R0 (say R-nought) tells how many other people one infected person will infect in a population with no immunity at all. For Covid this is generally reckoned to be about 2.2. (It’s hard to be certain exactly, but it’s definitely not up in the 15 range like measles.) So in a population where half the people are immune, the virus will only infect, on average, 1.1 people (that is, half of 2.2. Some of the maths in epidemiology is truly simple!) When the R number goes as low as one, the virus cannot cause an epidemic, since each infected person on average only affects one other, so the number of infected people will reach a steady state. If R is less than one, the infection will gradually die out. This is why epidemics effectively kill themselves off. As more people are infected, and become immune, the amount of immunity builds up until the infection dies away. That is herd immunity. We would not know this information but for a report in the Spectator here <https://spectator.us/norway-health-chief-lockdown-tame-covid/#content-area-wrap>. Why the Spectator has a habit of reporting truth about Covid is a question I have often pondered. More on that below. The original Norwegian report is here <https://www.fhi.no/contentassets/c9e459cd7cc24991810a0d28d7803bd0/notat-om-risiko-og-respons-2020-05-05.pdf>. At sixty pages, in Norwegian, it’s not an easy read. But their main graph can be understood without language: *Click on the link for the rest.* -- If you appreciate News From Underground, please consider making a donation — either a one-time gift or a monthly subscription: http://markcrispinmiller.com/support/ Thank you for your support. Ways to unsubscribe: 1) send a blank email to [email protected] PLEASE NOTE: you must unsubscribe using the SAME email with which you subscribed 2) go to http://groups.google.com/group/newsfromunderground and click on the "Unsubscribe or change membership" link in the yellow bar at the top of the page, then click the "Unsubscribe" button on the next page. For more News From Underground, visit http://markcrispinmiller.com --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "News From Underground" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/newsfromunderground/CAGxB6W_A8QQ07HXjhX5FgFVwc49uza_w%3Drjyxu1dEg2bjCDysQ%40mail.gmail.com.
