*"This means that the new coronavirus is probably much more common than previously **thought * *and the lethality per infection is up to five times lower than previously assumed. **The real lethality * *could thus be well below 0.1% and hence in the range of strong seasonal * *influenza."*
*We now know that the higher rate in New York City owes something to the daily slaughter in* *"the epicenter of the epicenter." * *MCM* June 2020*Studies of Covid-19 lethality* Stanford professor John Ioannidis published an overview of Covid-19 antibody studies <https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/>. According to his analysis, the lethality of Covid19 (IFR) is below 0.16% in most countries and regions. Ioannidis found an upper limit of 0.40% for three hotspots. In its latest report, <https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/> the US health authority CDC reduced the Covid19 lethality (IFR) to 0.26% (best estimate). Even this value may still be seen as an upper limit, since the CDC conservatively assumes 35% asymptomatic cases, while most studies indicate 50 to 80% <https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375> asymptomatic cases. At the end of May, however, Swiss immunologists led by Professor Onur Boyman published what is probably the most important study <https://swprs.org/coronavirus-antibody-tests-show-only-one-fifth-of-infections/> on Covid19 lethality to date. This preprint study comes to the conclusion that the usual antibody tests that measure antibodies in the blood (IgG and IgM) can recognize *at most one fifth *of all Covid19 infections. The reason for this discrepancy is that in most people the new coronavirus is already neutralized by antibodies on the mucous membrane (IgA) or by cellular immunity (T-cells). In most of these cases, no symptoms or only mild symptoms develop. This means that the new coronavirus is probably much more common than previously thought and the lethality per infection is up to five times lower than previously assumed. The real lethality could thus be *well below 0.1%* and hence in the range of strong seasonal influenza. In fact, several studies have now shown that up to 60% of all people already have a certain cellular immunity <https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3> to Covid-19, which was acquired through contact with previous coronaviruses (common cold viruses). Children in particular often come into contact with such coronaviruses, which could help explain their insensitivity to Covid19. The new Swiss study may also explain why antibody studies even in *hotspots* like New York or Madrid found infection rates of at most about 20% <https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing>, as this would correspond to an actual rate of nearly 100%. In many regions, the actual prevalence might already be well over 50% <https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/> and thus in the range of herd immunity. Should the Swiss study be confirmed, the assessment of Oxford epidemiologist Prof. *Sunetra Gupta *would apply*,* who predicted early on that Covid-19 is very widespread and its lethality below 0.1% <https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/>. Despite the comparatively low *lethality* of Covid-19 (deaths per infection), the *mortality* (deaths per population) can still be increased regionally and in the short term if the virus spreads rapidly and reaches high risk groups, especially patients in nursing homes, as indeed happened in several hotspots (see below). Due to its rather low lethality, Covid-19 falls at most into level 2 of the five-level pandemic plan <https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2007/02/hhs-ties-pandemic-mitigation-advice-severity> developed by the US health authorities. For this level, only the *“voluntary isolation of sick people”* is to be applied, while further measures such as face masks, school closings, distance rules, contact tracing, vaccinations and lockdowns of entire societies are not recommended. Regarding *contact tracing*, a WHO study on influenza pandemics from 2019 also came to the conclusion that from a medical point of view this is “under no circumstances recommended” <https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf>, since it is not expedient for easily communicable and generally mild respiratory diseases. It is sometimes argued that the rather low lethality was not known at the beginning of the pandemic. This is not entirely true, as data from South Korea, the cruise ships and even from Italy already showed in March <https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/> that the risk to the general population is rather low. Many health authorities also knew this, as leaked emails from Denmark <https://www.thelocal.dk/20200529/leaked-emails-show-how-denmarks-pm-steam-rollered-her-own-health-agency> in mid-March show: “The Danish Health Authority continues to consider that Covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate.” However, some media and laypeople continue to calculate an allegedly much higher Covid19 lethality of sometimes over 1% by simply dividing <https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html> deaths by “infections”. This procedure is of course not meaningful because it does not take into account the age and risk structure of the population, which is absolutely crucial, especially with Covid19. The latest data from the European mortality monitoring Euromomo <https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/> show that several countries such as France, Italy and Spain are already entering a *below-average mortality*. The reason for this is that the average age of Covid19 deaths was very high and fewer people than usual are now dying in this age group. *Click on the link for the rest.* -- If you appreciate News From Underground, please consider making a donation — either a one-time gift or a monthly subscription: http://markcrispinmiller.com/support/ Thank you for your support. 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