Evaluation of the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 in France, from all-cause mortality 1946-2020 *by D.G. Rancourt, Maurine Baudin, Jérémie Mercier*
*Technical Report (PDF Available)* · August 2020 *with* 7,521 Reads DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16836.65920/1 Cite this publication <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343775235_Evaluation_of_the_virulence_of_SARS-CoV-2_in_France_from_all-cause_mortality_1946-2020/citation/download> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343775235_Evaluation_of_the_virulence_of_SARS-CoV-2_in_France_from_all-cause_mortality_1946-2020 *Abstract* *We analyzed historic and recent all-cause mortality data for France, and other jurisdictions * *for comparison, using model fitting to quantify winter-burden deaths, and deaths from exceptional* *events. In this way, COVID-19 is put in historic perspective. We prove that the "COVID-peak" feature * *that is present in the all-cause mortality data of certain mid-latitude Northern hemisphere jurisdictions, * *including France, cannot be a natural epidemiological event occurring in the absence of a large non-* *pathogenic perturbation. * *We are certain that this "COVID-peak" is artificial because it: * *i. occurs sharply **(one-month width) at an unprecedented location in the seasonal cycle of all-cause * *mortality (centered **at the end of March), * *2 ii. is absent in many jurisdictions (34 of the USA States have no "COVID-peak"), **and iii. varies widely * *in magnitude from jurisdiction to jurisdiction in which it occurs. * *We suggest that:* * • the unprecedented strict mass quarantine and isolation of both sick and healthy elderly people, together * *and separately, killed many of them, * *• that this quarantine and isolation is the cause of the "COVID-peak" event that we have quantified, * *• and that the medical mechanism is mainly via psychological stress and social isolation of individuals * *with health vulnerabilities. * *According to our calculations, this caused some 30.2 K deaths in France in March and April 2020. * *However, even including the "COVID-peak", the 2019-2020 winter-burden all-cause mortality is not * *statistically larger than usual. Therefore SARS-CoV-2 is not an unusually virulent viral respiratory * *disease pathogen. By analyzing the all-cause mortality data from 1946 to 2020, we also identified * *a large and steady increase in all-cause mortality that began in approximately 2008, which is too * *large to be explained by population growth in the relevant age structure, and which may be related * *to the economic crash of 2008 and its long-term societal consequences.* -- If you appreciate News From Underground, please consider making a donation — either a one-time gift or a monthly subscription: http://markcrispinmiller.com/support/ Thank you for your support. Ways to unsubscribe: 1) send a blank email to [email protected] PLEASE NOTE: you must unsubscribe using the SAME email with which you subscribed 2) go to http://groups.google.com/group/newsfromunderground and click on the "Unsubscribe or change membership" link in the yellow bar at the top of the page, then click the "Unsubscribe" button on the next page. For more News From Underground, visit http://markcrispinmiller.com --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "News From Underground" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/newsfromunderground/CAGxB6W-6LQx9Ef8kF4FJft-wBwR_H4y%3DjgnCBohiXz1kbKoWWQ%40mail.gmail.com.
