As it stands now, I think there is a good chance for low ceilings lasting well into the night. Probably less than 1000 feet all night...there will be fog too... especially over the hills. Winds are expected to be NW around 5-15 knots up through about 5-6 thousand feet through the night. Not sure how many birds will be taking off in the foggy/drizzly air mass in NY...but north into Ontario (which is north of the low cloud shield) there is a chilly mass in place and northerly winds which will increase through the night with a colder air mass pouring south. I would imagine this will get birds going south from Ontario into NY. It will be interesting to see if birds fly above the lower cloud shield or go below it ...or both. There also will be a cloud layer between 2000 and 4000 feet above ground level.
This could be a great night...or a bust. Depends on what the birds do. Forecasting weather is hard enough, forecasting what birds will do is beyond my expertise. Maybe someone else can help here with the birds?? If the flight is low enough it may fall below the radar beam and not show up as well. If we see radar echo "blossoming" after sunset then we know there is a flight at 2000-5000 feet above ground level which still could mean many birds below the clouds and in the fog. Since there is also drizzle and light rain showers, the radar is picking up precipitation echoes. I have access to dual polar radar data which will be able to determine between the precipitation and the bird echoes. This will be interesting to see also. In any event, I hope, in some ways, the flight is not too low because the risk of tower and wind turbine kills will go way up. If people go out listening tonight, please share on this listserver. If you live near a tower and it is foggy you may want to check for kills. Let's hope this does not happen. Good luck everyone! Dave Nicosia ________________________________ From: Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes <c...@cornell.edu> To: CAYUGABIRDS-L <cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu> Sent: Friday, September 28, 2012 3:49 PM Subject: [cayugabirds-l] FOG - Night Flight Good afternoon, birders! Tonight the forecast for the Ithaca, NY area (at least) is looking very interesting. The local forecast is calling for a light NW wind (3-5 mph). Currently, we've got foggy conditions (very low cloud ceiling). If the weather pattern holds true, we may see a slowly increasing cloud ceiling height over the course of the night (thanks Dave Nicosia for this info!). If this condition persists into the night, we may see an excellent night flight of low-flying night migrants (thrushes, warblers, sparrows, etc.). This means that migrants will be easily heard, but it also means that they may temporarily circle around or even temporarily settle down near well lighted areas (lighted athletic fields, mall parking lots, etc.). On the potentially detrimental side of things, this means that birds may be more prone to striking human-made objects that are in unexpectedly in the way of these night-flying birds (for example: radio towers, wind turbines, tall lighted buildings, etc.). The negative side-effects from this type of weather event may include higher than normal numbers of tower-killed and wind turbine-killed birds and an increased incidence of nighttime window-strikes at tall lighted buildings. Local areas to go to listen for migrants and check for birds (healthy or otherwise) include: lighted athletic fields (Schoellkopf Field Stadium or other practice fields around Cornell University and Ithaca College), lighted parking lots (especially those at higher elevations, such as Shops at Ithaca Mall, Ithaca College Campus, Cornell Campus, Cayuga Medical Center, etc.), near tall lighted buildings, and possibly include checking radio towers or wind turbine sites for deceased or injured birds. Hopefully, tonight won't contribute to many deaths, but these conditions invariably result in some level of casualties. Good birding and good night listening. Sincerely, Chris T-H -- Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes Field Applications Engineer Bioacoustics Research Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850 W: 607-254-2418 M: 607-351-5740 F: 607-254-1132 http://www.birds.cornell.edu/brp -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: Welcome and Basics Rules and Information Subscribe, Configuration and Leave Archives: The Mail Archive Surfbirds BirdingOnThe.Net Please submit your observations to eBird! -- -- NFC-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC-L_SubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/nfc-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
