I have often used the earth.nullschool streams to understand bird migration movements. However, here in coastal Nova Scotia many birds, mainly passerines, fly well above 1000 hpa and well below 850 hpa altitudes (the choices available in nullschool streams). The HYSPLIT models often provide more insight into passerine and small passerine movements at these intermediate altitudes between 100 and 1500 meters. I have only analyzed past events and never tried forecasting.
John Kearney Yarmouth, Nova Scotia From: bounce-3195061-53237...@mm.list.cornell.edu On Behalf Of Bryan Guarente Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2020 20:56 To: Night Flight Call Discussions <email@example.com> Subject: Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY Lee and others, I didn't see this at the time because it unfortunately went to spam. The website earth.nullschool.net <http://earth.nullschool.net> is available for anyone to use and gives computer modeled streamlines that can help with predicting migration patterns. It is best to look at the 850hPa (mb) level when looking for migrational movements away from taller topography. There is a lot more to it than that, but Chris's example was a really good one to use. On that website, you have the ability to go back in time to Dec 31 of 2013, so feel free to time travel to look at your "best days" and see what the weather was like. Also, you can move forward in time approximately 4 days. All of the controls for this site are in the "Earth" button in the bottom left corner. Caveat: This website uses computer model data and computer models can be quite wrong, especially the further forward in time you travel. So take the forecast maps with a large grain of salt. The maps from the past are also from this same computer model, so there are still errors, but they are smaller errors than the forecasts have in them. Sorry for the delayed response. Bryan Bryan Guarente Meteorologist/Instructional Designer UCAR/The COMET Program Boulder, CO On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:01 AM Lee Simpson <flutteri...@yahoo.com <mailto:flutteri...@yahoo.com> > wrote: This is a great map. Is this something we can access? I have looked at the NOAA aviation wind/streamlines maps but they are nothing like this Thanks Lee Simpson On Friday, September 18, 2020, 01:36:07 AM EDT, Bryan Guarente <bryan.guare...@gmail.com <mailto:bryan.guare...@gmail.com> > wrote: Christopher, Based on your signature location and the current wind pattern: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-77.30,42.81,960/loc=-76.383,42.485 You should be seeing this likely through the night with numbers getting less as the night goes on but plenty of migrants. I have an article coming out in the Fall North American Birds about why this is the case. For the short and sweet, looking at the right altitude for migration, the winds are the right direction for fall migrants into your area, the origin is quite distant from you, and there is a frontal passage at right this time getting you some extra convergence of birds in your area. The larger scale pattern shows that there may be better places than where you are in terms of large scale convergence, but your pattern is pretty damn good for migrants. If you have questions, ask. I am happy to talk more about this. Bryan Guarente Meteorologist/Instructional Designer The COMET Program Boulder, CO On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:21 PM Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes <c...@cornell.edu <mailto:c...@cornell.edu> > wrote: Posted the following to the NFC Facebook group just now and thought I would share here: I’ve been listening live in Etna, NY tonight since 10:30pm. This has been an epic migration night here and one of the more constantly vocal in recent memory. Literally thousands and thousands of calls. Nearly constant calls of warblers, thrushes, (and tanagers?), grosbeaks, occasional sparrows, all stepping upon one another. First regular groups of Gray-cheeked Thrushes late tonight. One Black-billed Cuckoo. Only just now was there a notable gap of some 10-20 seconds without a call, as a group of coyotes started yipping and whooping. Most impressive night to be listening prior to this first calm. It will be interesting to try to run these data through Vesper (I am recording to file sequence using Raven Pro; plus recording the full night with my Swift recorder and Flowrabola microphone.) Good night-listening! 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