Dear Maurizio,

>> Now I plan to add Holt-Winters forecasting
>>
> Hi Gabor,
> could you recall me how this forecast works, and what are you planning
> to use it for?

Holt-Winters forecasting is a built-in feature of RRD.
It requires some 5 RRAs that store statistical data like deviation etc.
Then rrdgraph can visualize a confidence interval for each data
source and "optically alerts" you if the plot runs out of it.

See
http://oss.oetiker.ch/rrdtool/doc/rrdcreate.en.html
http://oss.oetiker.ch/rrdtool/doc/rrdgraph.en.html
as well as 
http://www.usenix.org/events/lisa00/full_papers/brutlag/brutlag_html/index.html
http://cricket.sourceforge.net/aberrant/rrd_hw.htm
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section4/pmc435.htm

First I wish to enhance nfsen in order to visually emphasize suspicious
traffic on main graph.
In the second stage nfsend could scan stored data and maintain an
alarm list like NERD (http://www.nerdd.org) with links that
points to the properly prepared graph.

This work is part of our activity in Geant Research Programme (GN2 JRA2).

Regards

Gabor

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