*This puts that so-called "milestone" of 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, and all the shrieking about* *rising "cases," into question, to say the least.*
> > > https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/ > Coronavirus Cases Plummet When PCR Tests Are Adjusted > by Barbara Cáceres > Published September 29, 2020 | Medicine > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/medicine/>, Public Health > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/medicine/public-health/> > > Health experts now say that PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2, the virus > associated with the illness COVID-19, is too sensitive and needs to be > adjusted to rule out people who have insignificant amounts of the virus in > their system.1 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn1> > The > test’s threshold is so high that it detects people with the live virus as > well as those with a few genetic fragments left over from a past infection > that no longer poses a risk. It’s like finding a hair in a room after a > person left it, says Michael Mina, MD, an epidemiologist at the Harvard > T.H. Chan School of Public Health.2 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn2> > > In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds compiled by > officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people > testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by *The New York > Times* found.3 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn3> > Manufacturers and Labs Set Criteria for Positive COVID-19 Test Results > > The reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) > test used to identify those people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus uses > a nasal swab to collect RNA from deep within the nasal cavity of the > individual being tested. The RNA is reverse transcribed into DNA and > amplified through 40 or more cycles, or until virus is detected.4 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn4> > The > result is reported as a simple “yes” or “no” answer to the question of > whether someone is infected. > > The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officials state they do not > specify the cycle threshold ranges used to determine who is positive, and > that commercial manufacturers and laboratories set their own threshold > ranges.5 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn5> > PCR Test Threshold for COVID-19 Positivity Is Too Sensitive > > Any test with a cycle threshold (CT) above 35 is too sensitive, says > Juliet Morrison, PhD, a virologist at the University of California, > Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 [cycles] could > represent a positive.” A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she > added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less. Those > changes would mean the amount of genetic material in a patient’s sample > would have to be 100-fold to 1,000-fold that of the current standard for > the test to return a positive result worth acting on.6 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn6> > > The CDC’s own calculations suggest that it is extremely difficult to > detect any live virus in a sample above a threshold of 33 cycles.7 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn7> > > “We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus > or minus—that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical > diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.” But “yes” or > “no” isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should > dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I > think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. > Mina said.8 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn8> > > The number of people with positive results who aren’t infectious is > particularly concerning, said Scott Becker, executive director of the > Association of Public Health Laboratories. “That worries me a lot, just > because it’s so high,” he said.9 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn9> > SARS-CoV-2 Positive Case Numbers Drop When Cycle Threshold is Adjusted, > Removing Need for Contact Tracing > > Officials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, have access to CT > values from tests they have processed, and analyzed their numbers at *The > Times’s *request. In July, the lab identified 872 positive tests, based > on a threshold of 40 cycles. With a cutoff of 35 cycles, about 43 percent > of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 63 percent would > no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30. > > In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in > July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the > threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those > people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said. > > “I’m really shocked that it could be that high—the proportion of people > with high CT value results,” said Ashish Jha, MD, director of the Harvard > Global Health Institute. “Boy, does it really change the way we need to be > thinking about testing.”10 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn10> > “Gold Standard” PCR Tests Leave Many Unanswered Questions Due to Knowledge > Gaps > > A positive PCR test does not tell doctors whether the person is currently > ill or will become ill in the future, whether they are infectious or will > become infectious, whether they are recovered or recovering from COVID, or > whether the PCR test identified a viral fragment from another coronavirus > infection in the past. The CDC reports that a person who has recovered from > COVID-19 may have low levels of virus in their bodies for up to three > months after diagnosis and may test positive, even though they are not > spreading COVID-19.11 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn11> > CT Value Adds Context to PCR Results, Personalizes Care > > Although the cycle threshold (CT) is not reported on PCR tests, new > evidence suggests the CT value could help to better inform clinical > decisions, particularly when testing in the absence of symptoms for > COVID-19. When SARS-CoV-2 virus is detected after fewer amplification > cycles, that indicates a higher viral load and a higher likelihood of being > contagious, while virus detected after more amplifications indicates a > lower viral load. > > “It’s just kind of mind-blowing to me that people are not recording the CT > values from all these tests—that they’re just returning a positive or a > negative,” said Angela Rasmussen, PhD, a virologist at Columbia University > in New York. “It would be useful information to know if somebody’s > positive, whether they have a high viral load or a low viral load,” she > added.12 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn12> > > In a study published in *Clinical Infectious Diseases* in May, 2020,13 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn13> > the > authors suggested that viral load based on CT cutoff could establish > whether inpatients have transmissible disease or need to be retested. This > would conserve valuable testing capacity, reagents, and personal protective > equipment (PPE), and determine when a patient could discontinue isolation. > Taking the CT value into account may also help justify symptom-based > strategies recommended by the CDC. CT values may enable contact tracers to > focus only on persons most likely to be infectious, which will become > increasingly important as asymptomatic screening expands. > > Another study14 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn14> > found > that patients with positive PCR tests at a CT above 33-34 are not > contagious and can be discharged from the hospital or strict confinement at > home. > > Evidence from both viral isolation and contact tracing studies supports a > short, early period of transmissibility. By accounting for the CT value in > context, RT-qPCR results can be used in a way that is personalized, highly > sensitive, and more specific.15 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn15> > FDA Approves Rapid, Less Sensitive Coronavirus Antigen Test > > Highly sensitive PCR tests seemed like the best option for tracking the > coronavirus at the start of the pandemic. But for the outbreaks raging now, > Dr. Mina said, what’s needed are coronavirus tests that are fast, cheap and > abundant enough to frequently test everyone who needs it—even if the tests > are less sensitive. “It might not catch every last one of the transmitting > people, but it sure will catch the most transmissible people, including the > super spreaders.” > > The FDA noted that people may have a low viral load when they are newly > infected. A test with less sensitivity would miss these infections. That > problem is easily solved, Dr. Mina said: “Test them again, six hours later > or 15 hours later or whatever,” he said. A rapid test would find these > patients quickly, even if it were less sensitive, because their viral loads > would quickly rise. People infected with the virus are most infectious from > a day or two before symptoms appear till about five days after. But at the > current testing rates, “you’re not going to be doing it frequently enough > to have any chance of really capturing somebody in that window,” Dr. Mina > added.16 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn16> > > When a patient is tested for the coronavirus, doctors typically tell them > to stay home until the results come in. If a patient tests positive and > faces a two-week quarantine, that means they could spend a total of three > weeks in isolation. That’s a long time for anybody who has bills to pay or > kids to care for, and it’s understandable that some people will continue > working until the results come in. The problem is that anybody who does > this with a serious infection is putting others at risk.17 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn17> > Rapid > tests can be helpful in these situations. > > In late August, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the > first rapid coronavirus test that doesn’t need any special computer > equipment. Made by Abbot Laboratories, the 15-minute test will sell for > U.S. $5 but still requires a nasal swab to be taken by a health worker.18 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn18> > The > Abbot test is the fourth rapid point-of-care test that looks for the > presence of antigens rather than the virus’s genetic code as the PCR > molecular tests do. 19 > <https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/#_edn19> > > --- Support News from Underground: http://bit.ly/NFUSupport You received this email because you are subscribed to News from Underground. To unsubscribe from this email list, please go to: http://www.simplelists.com/confirm.php?u=pIdjNUgiG2h8yxbhC54SSy4SEskAoEMs For archives, please go to: http://archives.simplelists.com/nfu
