A Bayesian Perspective on Estimation of Variability and Uncertainty in Mechanism-Based Models by Dr. Tarek Leil Director Bristol-Myers Squibb New Date: September 24, 2013 1:00 - 2:00 pm EDT >From Dr. Leil, "As our understanding of biological systems and pharmacology >increases, the knowledge required to develop predictive mathematical models >based on underlying biological/pharmacological processes becomes only a >mouse-click away. This has led to an increase in the use of mechanism-based >models for prediction of drug pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD). >Because of the high dimensionality of these models and the limitations of >typical non-linear mixed effects (NLME) estimation algorithms, simultaneous >estimation of fixed and random effect parameters has been difficult. In >addition, the incorporation of prior information can be subjective, often >requiring fixing of numerous model parameters. Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) >Bayesian estimation algorithms, while relatively computer intensive, are not >as sensitive to increases in model complexity as traditional estimation >approaches, permit transparent and robust incorporation of prior information, >and allow estimation of fixed and random effect parameters for mechanism-based >models. The concepts of Bayesian NLME approaches will be discussed, and >examples of Bayesian mechanism-based PK and PD models will be presented." Dr. Leil's presentation is a part of the monthly world-wide webinar series "Impact of Modeling & Simulation in Drug Development<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001hLb72hSEJMkbcrPUtBiVQKIvxzX8hwOb9PRXqVUaHnJr4lKmvMKdbJ3qHz7p52os7IU6LE4AURcO-QCLpBrHawhub5bx8q9GuXxhzTNdM07otbJ9QeaDHixJzi4mIz3y>" hosted by Rosa & Co. LLC. The purpose of the "Impact" series is to foster the use of M&S activities in all phases of drug development by illustrating the advantages and enhancing the applicability of M&S in product discovery, development, and marketing programs. The series is intended for drug development project team members from discovery to phase IV clinical trials. This includes pharmacologists, ADME scientists, PK/PD modelers, clinical pharmacologists, clinical development team members, regulatory affairs specialists, and other interested professionals. Register for this free webinar at www.rosaandco.com/webinar<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001hLb72hSEJMkbcrPUtBiVQKIvxzX8hwOb9PRXqVUaHnJr4lKmvMKdbJ3qHz7p52os7IU6LE4AURcO-QCLpBrHawhub5bx8q9GuXxhzTNdM07otbJ9QeaDHixJzi4mIz3y>. After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar. More information about the webinar series, an archive of past webinars, and a list of future webinar speakers may be found at www.rosaandco.com/webinar<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001hLb72hSEJMkbcrPUtBiVQKIvxzX8hwOb9PRXqVUaHnJr4lKmvMKdbJ3qHz7p52os7IU6LE4AURcO-QCLpBrHawhub5bx8q9GuXxhzTNdM07otbJ9QeaDHixJzi4mIz3y>. Please allow 5-10 minutes for a Java applet to be installed on your computer prior to joining our webinar series for the first time.
