I think that the procedure that you suggested (simulation - correlation - popPK model) may not be reliable in general case as it assumes (or will result in the data) that the profiles of individual subjects are ordered at all time points. It correspond to some special (but explicit) assumptions about random effect structure. I would rather use explicit assumptions.
Leonid

--------------------------------------
Leonid Gibiansky, Ph.D.
President, QuantPharm LLC
web:    www.quantpharm.com
e-mail: LGibiansky at quantpharm.com
tel:    (301) 767 5566



On 9/11/2015 1:38 PM, Penny Zhu wrote:
Dear Dr Gibiansky
Thank you very much for the suggestion.  I largely agree with you that it seems 
to be an trial and error thing to make the variability match the model 
prediction if we have a strong assumption about the model structure.

I was also wondering whether it is possible to simulate individual patient data 
at each timepoint based on the mean, steandard deviation, and an using an 
assumption that within patients (especially in adjacent timepionts) the Pk 
concentrations are more correlated compared to between patients.  Then use 
these simulated data to fit the population PK model.

Best regards.

Penny Zhu



-----Original Message-----
From: Leonid Gibiansky [mailto:[email protected]]

Sent: Thursday, September 10, 2015 5:10 PM
To: Zhu, Penny; [email protected]
Subject: Re: FW: [NMusers] Question of fitting population PK
model using summary statistics of data instead of raw data

It is likely impossible without strong assumptions. I would
first fit the population model (fixed effects only) and then
start to simulate with different assumption trying to match
observed SD or CV for peaks and troughs. You may need to
assume the structure and the magnitude of the error model
and the structure of the IIV model (ETAs on CL, or V, or
both equal, etc.). You may get some rough idea about the
magnitude of the IIV but you may need strong assumptions
about the residual and IIV model.
Leonid


--------------------------------------
Leonid Gibiansky, Ph.D.
President, QuantPharm LLC
web:    www.quantpharm.com
e-mail: LGibiansky at quantpharm.com
tel:    (301) 767 5566



On 9/10/2015 2:06 PM, Penny Zhu wrote:
Dear Dinko
Thank you for the suggestion.  It seems this NAD
approach only uses the mean data and does not estimate
inter-subject variability using the standard deviation
data.

My intention is to establish a population PK/PD model
with appropriate estimation of intersubject variability
based on the mean and standard deviation data at each
timepoint.

A major assumption is that we have good knowledge of
the base
structure of the model (e.g. biexponential), and won't
run the risk
mistaking 2 mono exponential models for a biexponential
model

Your help and discussions will be very much
appreciated.

Penny


    -----Original Message-----
    From: Rekic, Dinko [mailto:[email protected]]
    Sent: Thursday, September 10, 2015
10:41 AM
    To: Zhu, Penny
    Subject: RE: [NMusers] Question of
fitting population PK
    model using summary statistics of data
instead of raw data

    See the link and text below.

    http://accp1.org/pharmacometrics/theory_popmeth.htm#npd


    Naive averaged data approach (NAD)

        A model without BSV and
BOV is fitted to the
    mean data from all individuals.

        Features


    -Specialized software not
    necessary.

        Disadvantages

            -Does not
distinguish between
    BSV and WSV.


    -Inappropriate means lead to
    biased parameter estimates.

            -May
produce model distortion
    i.e., 2 mono exponential equations
averaged together can
    yield a biexponential.

            -Covariate
modeling cannot be
    performed.

    Kind regards
    Dinko
    _________________________________
    Dinko Rekić, Ph.D., MSc(Pharm)
    Pharmacometrics reviewer
    Division of Pharmacometrics
    Office of Clinical Pharmacology
    Office of Translational Science
    Center for Drug Evaluation and
Research
    U.S. Food and Drug Administration
    10903 New Hampshire Ave
    Silver Spring, MD 20993
    WO Bldg 51, Rm 3122
    Office phone: (8)240 402-3785

    "The contents of this message are mine
personally and do not
    necessarily reflect any position of
the Government or the
    Food and Drug Administration."

    -----Original Message-----
    From: [email protected]
    [mailto:[email protected]]
    On Behalf Of Penny Zhu
    Sent: Thursday, September 10, 2015
9:49 AM
    To: [email protected]
    Subject: [NMusers] Question of fitting
population PK model
    using summary statistics of data
instead of raw data

    Dear all
    Assuming the population PK or PD data
are log-normally (or
    normally) distributed, if you have the
mean and standard
    deviation of a readout at each
timepoint but do not have the
    actual raw data (assuming all pateints
are with the same
    dosing regimen, etc),  is it
possible to establish a
    well fitted population PK or PD
model?  How would one
    get about doing it?

    Your help is very much appreciated

    Penny



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