No time to deal with all of this point by point, but let's just focus on trade this time around:
John G. wrote: > > > > > You'll note that I don't share several of your deep-seated > > assumptions, e.g.: > > > > > > - the US experience/system can be extrapolated abroad > > > And I responded: > >I do not understand what this means. > And John G. claimed: > It means that your arguments are all predicated on your perception of > the US experience/system (go through them). In Europe and Asia, very > different systems are at play: The recent economic downturn > notwithstanding, the entire region is thriving on increased > international trade, and a more fluid job market (except bloody Denmark!). And I further noted: > >Trade is collapsing. And John G. responded: > Sorry? > > Check out the big picture: > > "For the 2000-2007 period, exports > on average increased by 2.7 percentage > points faster than real gross domestic > product." > http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2008_e/its08_toc_e.htm > No, John. YOU check out the big picture. Let's start with China: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19c25aea-f0f5-11dd-8790-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 Hmmm, according to this, 20 million people in China have already lost their jobs in export-oriented industries, and have returned to their villages. Guess the writers at the Financial Times did not get your memo about how Europe and Asia are thriving on increased trade. Or perhaps you do not know what you are talking about? And here is another article providing more evidence, from international trade between Europe and East Asia. http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/2963097 I could easily paste another dozen articles like this if I had the time. The press has been full of this stuff for months now, John. This is what is happening right now, and it is global in scope. Alan Beattie of the Financial Times was just on "Washington Journal" on C-SPAN last week going over the grim picture. and he said more or less the same thing I did, namely "Trade is collapsing", in a way that just does not ordinarily happen even in a "worldwide recession", to use Alan's misnomer for what is occurring now. Sorry, but citing stats from 2000-2007 just misses the point. Things are coming unwound, right here, right now. Just read the business page of your paper, John. It is all right there. And once again, the real question is, what comes next? John M. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Persons posting messages to not_honyaku assume all responsibility for their messages. The list owner does not review messages prior to posting, and accepts no responsibility for the content of messages posted. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
