So here's what we would need to falsify a prediction [about the effect of the stimulus legislation]. Anyone who claims to know the impact should escrow a copy of the source code of the econometric model that is used to make the prediction, along with a stated confidence interval, operational scripts, and assumptions for all required non-stimulus inputs that populate the model with a named third-party. Upon reaching the date for which the prediction is made, the third-party should run the model with the actual data for all non-stimulus assumptions and compare the model result to actual. Source: http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/02/stimulus_predictions_put_up_or_shut_up.php
Okay, here's my economic model: GDP $0 Date of prediction: December 23, 2012, which is about one month before the end of the Obama Administration. -- Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY) --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Persons posting messages to not_honyaku assume all responsibility for their messages. The list owner does not review messages prior to posting, and accepts no responsibility for the content of messages posted. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
