I have to disagree with the paragraph about the pressure from OEMs to dump
XP.  Seems to me, several HP and Dell included, are doing exactly the
opposite.  Both are offering to exercise the OEM downgrade rights for you
and ship PCs to you with XP pre-installed, but with a Vista license attached
and including media for both OSes.

-----Original Message-----
From: Angus Scott-Fleming [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Saturday, May 10, 2008 7:20 AM
To: NT System Admin Issues
Subject: Why XP is doomed

Interesting analysis from Cringely.  As always, "follow the money" ...

------- Included Stuff Follows -------
I, Cringely . The Pulpit . Wimpy | PBS

    ...

    Several readers are concerned about Microsoft's decision to stop selling

    Windows XP and -- most importantly -- end security updates for the 
    venerable operating system. This has everything to do with business and 
    nothing at all to do with technology. Wearing my business reporter's 
    fedora, then, I'll point you back a week or so to Microsoft's most
recent 
    earnings announcement, which disappointed Wall Street. This is
significant 
    because it is hard to find a Wall Street analyst who remembers the last 
    time Microsoft's earnings were disappointing. It simply doesn't happen. 
    That's because Microsoft has a myriad of tools for adjusting the numbers

    to look just right.

    Because Microsoft has so many tools for fine-tuning its financials 
    (primarily the management of expenses, by the way -- Microsoft makes so 
    much money that it tunes the numbers by throwing cash away), the fact
that 
    this last set of numbers disappointed suggests to me that they, too,
could 
    have been avoided. Microsoft probably decided to deliberately take an 
    earnings hit precisely so they could play the "we have to get the
earnings 
    up" card to justify the final death of XP.

    Microsoft has been under huge pressure from its hardware OEMs to dump
XP, 
    thus forcing millions of customers who have been avoiding Vista and 
    Vista's inevitable hardware upgrade to finally buy new computers.
Dumping 
    XP will help Dell and HP AND Microsoft, big-time. It won't do anything
for 
    you or me, though, since Vista still sucks, but we obviously don't
matter.

    Those customers who think they'll keep XP going on their own will
probably 
    be out of luck, too. With Microsoft abandoning security upgrades,
hackers 
    will eat holes in the old OS practically overnight. And if one or more
of 
    the security companies like Symantec or McAfee think they can make a 
    business out of defending XP, I simply doubt that customers will pay.

--------- Included Stuff Ends ---------
Other topics also discussed in his column here:
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20080509_004880.html


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