Hello, I am not exactly sure whether I am using NuPIC correctly and whether my assumptions are correct, so I have a few questions about how the prediction system works.
1) I believe the predictions have been shifted to line up with the actual values such that on each line, the prediction given refers to the predicted value for that line, not the value that is predicted for the next line. If this is the case, is NuPIC only supposed to predict up to the last actual point? Given 100 actual values as data, NuPIC will produce predictions up to that 100th point, but it will not go any further. In this case, how would you get a prediction for the 101st point where the actual value is unknown, or is NuPIC not designed to work this way? 2) Also, in the hotgym scenario, in some cases like for the first value and other beginning values, the "prediction" is exactly the actual value. Clearly, no prediction has actually occurred and NuPIC has just placed the actual value as its prediction (maybe as a placeholder?) because it doesn't know what to do. I think this is misleading, and that the prediction should be blank when NuPIC is not actually predicting (this is not referring to the case where NuPIC uses the previous value as a prediction; this case is a valid prediction since it is using the previous data). 3) Is NuPIC supposed to use all the data for each prediction instead of just the previous data? For example, I changed the last actual value given in the hotgym scenario, and after swarming and running, the new predictions were different from the old predictions, which implies that the last actual value has an effect on the predictions for the previous values. If this is actually the case, doesn't that mean NuPIC has some hindsight bias because it is using "future" values to help it predict "past" values? I think it may have to do with iterationCount in the swarm description; I'm not sure what "feeding all available aggregated records" means when you use -1 (from https://github.com/numenta/nupic/wiki/Running-Swarms). 4) What is the relationship/correlation between Anomaly Score and Anomaly Likelihood for the anomaly section of the hotgym? I thought that a point with a high anomaly score meant that it had a high chance of being an anomaly, but this doesn't seem to be the case. Thanks, Lexing _______________________________________________ nupic mailing list [email protected] http://lists.numenta.org/mailman/listinfo/nupic_lists.numenta.org
