New York Times
Pundits Declare the Race Over
By JIM RUTENBERG
Very early this morning, after many voters had already gone to sleep, the
conventional wisdom of the elite political pundit class that resides on
television shifted hard, and possibly irretrievably, against Senator Hillary
Clinton’s continued viability as a presidential candidate.
The moment came shortly after midnight Eastern time, captured in a
devastatingly declarative statement from Tim Russert of NBC News: “We now know
who the Democratic nominee’s going to be, and no one’s going to dispute it,” he
said on MSNBC.
“Those closest to her will give her a hard-headed analysis, and if they lay it
all out, they’ll say: ‘What is the rationale? What do we say to the undeclared
super delegates tomorrow? Why do we tell them you’re staying in the race?’ And
tonight, there’s no good answer for that.”
It was not exactly Walter Cronkite declaring that the Vietnam War would end in
stalemate. But the impact was apparent almost immediately, starting with The
Drudge Report, the online news billboard that is the home page to many
political reporters in Washington and news producers in New York. It had as its
lead story a link to a YouTube clip of Mr. Russert’s comments, accompanied by a
photograph of a beaming Mr. Obama with his wife, Michelle, and the headline,
“The Nominee.”
The thought echoed throughout the world of instant political analysis,
steamrolling the Clinton campaign’s attempts to promote the idea that her
victory in Indiana was nonetheless an upset in the face of Mr. Obama’s heavy
spending and his campaign’s predictions that he would win there, or that she
could still come back if delegates in Florida and Michigan are seated.
“I think there’s an increasing presumption tonight that Obama’s going to be the
nominee,” Chris Wallace, the Fox News host, said to Karl Rove, President Bush’s
longtime political guru, who is now a Fox News analyst. The statement preceded
a discussion about what a general election race would look like between Mr.
Obama and the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain.
A posting on the DailyKos Web site included a mock memo to Mrs. Clinton titled,
“To-Do List Before Dropping Out.”
Speaking on CNN, David Gergen, a former adviser to several presidents,
including Mrs. Clinton’s husband, said, “I think the Clinton people know the
game is almost up.”
Stating it more bluntly, Bob Franken, the political analyst, told the MSNBC
host Dan Abrams shortly after 2 a.m. Eastern time, “Let’s put it right on the
table: It’s over. It’s over.”
And it picked up again on the major morning news programs in a devastating
cascade of sound bites for Mrs. Clinton and her campaign.
Bob Schieffer on the CBS News program “Early Show”: “Basically, Maggie, this
race is over.”
George Stephanopoulos on the ABC program “Good Morning America”: “This
nomination fight is over.”
Matt Lauer on the NBC News program “Today”: “Good morning, is it over?”
The commentary was punctuated by some brutal morning newspaper headlines:
“Toast!” blared The New York Post; “Hil Needs a Miracle” declared The New York
Daily News.
Of course, the political news media have not exactly showered themselves in
glory this year. They have frequently made predictions that have been upended
by actual votes from actual people.
But their opinions matter as much as ever in this late phase of the primary
race, when Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are battling to sway the opinions of the
uncommitted superdelegates — the party leaders and elected officials with
automatic convention seats, whose support Mrs. Clinton will need if she is to
snatch the nomination from Mr. Obama.
The superdelegates are a largely elite group that presumably will track the
conventional wisdom of Washington’s class of political insiders as they weigh
their decisions. And the big donors and fund-raisers whose help Mrs. Clinton
will need to continue her campaign are similarly tapped into the news media
echo-sphere.
Mrs. Clinton’s campaign indicated early this morning that it would try to prove
the commentariat wrong once again. “Pundits have gleefully counted Senator
Clinton out before, and each time they have been wrong, because they don’t
decide this race — voters do,” Howard Wolfson, Mrs. Clinton’s communications
director, wrote in an e-mail message. “And as the results in Indiana
demonstrated, voters are rewarding Senator Clinton with victories, even in
states Senator Obama predicted victory in.”
Mr. Wolfson’s statement came in quick response to a request for comment that
was sent to him by e-mail after 2 a.m. Eastern time — an indication of the
campaign’s eagerness to undo the new conventional wisdom before it hardens.
The Clinton campaign initially had some reason for optimism.
Many of the gloomier assessments of her chances came late Tuesday night and
early this morning, when it appeared that she would not win Indiana as easily
as exit polls and early vote tallies indicated earlier in the night. By then,
early newspaper deadlines had passed and many voters were probably either
asleep or off watching Jay Leno or David Letterman.
If East Coast viewers of “NCIS” saw no news the rest of the night, they
certainly went to bed believing that Mrs. Clinton’s campaign was still there to
fight another day. CBS, which broadcasts the show, declared that she had won
the Indiana primary at 8:09 p.m. Eastern time, and Jeff Greenfield, the CBS
analyst, reported, “We go on to June 3, Hillary Clinton got the win she needs
to press her case.”
Even as Mrs. Clinton’s real-vote lead over Mr. Obama in the state dwindled to
just 16,000 as later returns came in, the CBS News Web site held on to its
headline, “Clinton Wins Ind., Obama Takes N.C.”
The headline was vindicated when several other news organizations declared that
Mrs. Clinton had indeed won in Indiana, five hours after CBS made its
projection. And it is that view of Tuesday’s results that most voters awoke to
on Wednesday: A split decision for Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama, no matter how
narrow.
The question is, will the analysts be talking that way throughout the day — and
if not, where does it leave Mrs. Clinton?
As of this morning, the climb for her seemed steeper.
###
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