Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza...)

[Meutia Kurniasih]

Portfolio yg "top down".......kita construct porftolio which in the first stage of this approach, the fundamental analyst examines the state of the economy of the country and its future performance as these have a significant impact on the prices of shares. more specifically, this involves an appraisal of some key indicators and fiscal policy. The second stage of the top down approach involves a study of the various industries with the view of selecting those that are likely to perform better than others. By concentrating on industries that will do well, it is possible not only to shorten the stock selection prospectc. A good company in an industry with a poor outlook would probably perform worse than an average company in another industry with high growth prospect.  The third stage of this approach, we would evaluate individual companies within the selected industries. these include financial analysis of the company, and evaluation of its biz, management and forecast of its earnings.   Sedangkan bottom up porfolios, adalah kebalikannnya. Kita melakukan studi terhadap stock2 yg kita pilih biasanya melalui stock selection strategy (first stage). Trus kita liat kondisi biz dari perusahaan itu, trus stlh itu baru melihat kondisi industri di perusahaan tersebut, trus baru ngeliat lagi kondisi ekonomi dari suatu negara. If semuanya ok, baru kita invest. Warren buffet memakai cara "bottom up" approach. Dia melihat coca cola adalah perusahaan dgn margin profit yg sangat besar with stable return.He was damn right. Tp cara seperti ini sepertinya selalu underperform dibandingkan top down appraoch for indonesian context.   Saham yg favourable (top down approach di thn 2005) adalah saham2 yg bergerak di bidang mining, natural gas Sedangkan utk thn 2006, kita tetap berat ke mining , natural gas plus telecommunication,food industries and heavy equipment   Portfolio perusahaan saya bekerja, terdiri cuman dari not more than 8 saham. Boz saya lebih memilih concentration over diversification. Sedangkan saya pribadi, punya portfolio yg terdiri dari sekitar 15 saham yg performancenya jauuuh sekali dibawah performance porfolio perusahaan (saya memilih diversification). Trus yg aneh lagi, buy and hold strategy works damn well in indonesia daripada trading. Riset saya kerjakan thn 2002-current.     ----- Original Message ----- From: Karno Edy To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Sunday, January 08, 2006 2:22 PM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza...) ape maksudnya portfolio nyang top down sama yg bottom up? ----- Original Message ----- From: Meutia Kurniasih To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Sunday, January 08, 2006 9:34 AM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza...) Pgas menurut value investor, udah diatas nilai wajar Tp pgas mempunyai karakteristik saham sesuai teori "pyschology of investing" Apakah kita tetap nekat invest di saham ini? Tergantung kita punya metoda apa portfolio saya sendiri masih consist pgas, tp itu waktu beli di harga murah Beli diharga sekarang...?..............kayaknya saya sendiri nggak berani utk ngikutin the proven theory   Di indonesia, "top down approach" portfolio selama kurun waktu 2002- current,  outperform porfolio "bottom up" Beda total dgn di singapore atau di korea (or negara yg lebih maju), mostly bottom up will outperform top down approach Trus value stock (selama kurun waktu di atas) nggak pernah outperform saham yg punya karakteristik "pyschology of investing" (contohnya pgas, atnm, isat) ----- Original Message ----- From: darma erwin To: saham@yahoogroups.com ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2006 6:26 PM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza ..)  IHSG 1.222 PGAS doang yang naik huahahahaa .. duit dari mane coy (mau nunggu Bom Kuningan maning yakk .) mending sekarang yang listing di BEJ PGAS, TLKM dan ISAT aza dech. .. dulu kate W. Simanjuntak PGAS akan RI jika Rp. 3.000,- wah2 .apaann .nich buat yang waras; masih banyak second liner yang sehat, pay attention. Bagaimanapun tanda2 bursa yang sehat adalah masa2 yang terjadi pada Januari-Maret 2005.   Salam, Yahoo! Photos Ring in the New Year with Photo Calendars. Add photos, events, holidays, whatever. YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS  Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web.    To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:  [EMAIL PROTECTED]    Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.