dari cc:
Buyback plan raises questions Buyback plan raises questions. Bumi's share price has plummeted 70.0% since the lifting of the suspension of trade on its shares. Is it cheap?. Left alone, we believe Bumi is cheap. However, a recent plan to buyback 17.0% shares worth US$824.7mn raises questions on prudency of cash management and reduces visibility of Bumi's commitment to develop Arutmin and KPC. We therefore downgraded our target price to its adjusted DCF (WACC rate of 15.1%) of US$0.1 4.. Maintain Buy, however at this juncture risk for investing in Bumi has heightened due to uncertainties on the buyback. US$225-mn questions. Replying questions from the bourse authority on Bumi's sources of financing for its US$825mn buyback of 17.0% of issued shares, Bumi mentioned two sources, namely US$225mn from internal cashflow, and US$600mn from third-party loan through MTN (medium-term notes) issuance. What catches our attention is the US$225mn internal funding is nearly equal to US$223mn in short-term investment that Bumi currently puts in Recapital Asset Management. Bumi in its 6M08 financial statements did not disclose further on what type of investment it entered into. We have tried to reach the management regarding the detail but up to now there is no reply. Buyback for whom? Wim Al Fatih, president director of Asia Kapitalindo, one of the MTN arrangers hinted that the purpose of the buyback could be to settle the repurchase agreements in Bumi's shares(Reuters, Nov 17, 2008). If the intended MTN buyers are the lenders of Bakrie Brother who are holding Bumi shares as collaterals, doesn't it need minority shareholders' approval? The average share price und er the buyback program of Rp2,500 a share is also considered high compared with the current price. Lower DCF on lower coal price and higher risk free rate. After adjustments to lower coal price (we downgraded our Newcastle benchmark to US$75/t), and slapping bigger risk-free rate (INDO14 yield of 14.2%), we arrived at a DCF of US$0.14/share. Still a Buy, however it is not for the faint hearted. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, simon bolenang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > Paparan Publik Bakrie Grup (Indro) > > > > > > > > > Jakarta > - Manajemen PT Bumi Resources Tbk mengaku belum tahu mengenai kabar > masuknya konglomerat George Soros ke perusahaan tambang batubara > terbesar itu. Yang pasti, BUMI masih melanjutkan proses penjualan ke > Northstar Pacific. > > "Saya > tidak tahu apa-apa mengenai hal itu," Senior Vice President Investor > Relations BUMI Dileep Srivastava saat dikonfirmasi mengenai kabar > masuknya Soros tersebut, Selasa(25/11/2008). > > Dileep bahkan > bertanya balik darimana kabar tersebut berembus. Kabar yang beredar di > kalangan pelaku pasar, Soros masuk ke BUMI melalui Citadel Investment > Group. > > Saat ditanya apakah transaksi dengan Northstar akan > selesai pada 28 November mendatang, Dileep hanya mengatakan: "Anda akan > tahu ketika saatnya datang," tegasnya. > > Analis dari Valbury Asia > Securities, Mastono Ali mengatakan, masuknya Soros ke BUMI memang belum > bisa dipastikan kebenarannya. Namun mengenai kenaikan harga saham BUMI > pada hari ini, Mastono menilai salah satunya disebabkan karena sentimen > positif akan segera berakhirnya proses akuisisi. > > "Saya melihat > auto rejection ke atas saham BUMI hari ini lebih karena sentimenpositif > mendekatnya penyelesaian transaksi Bakrie & Brothers dengan > Northstar Jumat ini," katanya ketika dihubungi detikFinance. > > Pada H-3 menjelang akhir transaksi, investor masuk dengan harapan jika kesepakatan tercapai mereka akan mendapatkan pembayaran. > > Saham > BUMI bersama saham-saham Grup Bakrie hari ini mengalami kenaikan tajam. > Saham BUMI naik Rp 140 (19,72%) menjadi Rp 850, sehingga terbentur auto > rejection batas atas.(dro/qom) >
