Kalau prediksi saya, high-nya akan tembus pak mungkin balik ke kisaran 65-70.
Alasannya, sekarang ini "demand" masih belum riil karena banyak perusahaan yg
minimize/limit atau scale down operationalnya. Salah satu contoh, beberapa
shipping lines lebih memilih untuk docking (=istirahatkan) kapal mereka untuk
minimize loss. Biasanya pertengahan tahun, traffic perdagangan akan mulai trend
up, disaat itu "real demand" akan terbentuk. Apalagi ditambah factor in dengan
spekulasi, maka harga akan terbentuk lebih cepat daripada demandnya sendiri.
February crude futures end higher
By Polya Lesova
Last update: 2:55 p.m. EST Dec. 19, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose above $42 a barrel Friday as
investors bid up the new February contract, but continued to sell off the
January contract, whose volatile action sent prices to as low as $32.40 a
barrel. Crude oil for February delivery, now the most active contract, rose 69
cents to end at $42.36 a barrel on Nymex. The front-month January contract,
which expired Friday, ended down $2.35 at $33.87 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
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-----Original Message-----
From: "FromBuitenzorg" <frombuitenz...@yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Dec 2008 03:53:58
To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] (MY PREDIKSI Oil 2009) Re: The fact of OIL...
Sebenarnya sangat menyenangkan sekali andai minyak bisa mencapai
$25/barrel, krn dapat memberikan rangsangan ekonomi dan lajunya yg
lebih baik...Harga BBM akan murah, komoditi lain bisa bersaing.
Karena "Minyak Selalu Top News di Segala Bursa". berikut ini saya
coba buat "sepintas saja" Outlook & Forecast 2009
-Kembali ke th 2006, dimana pertumbuhan ekonomi cukup bagus, harga
minyak, dg range $55 - 60/barre'
- Thn 2007 sedikit membaik, tetapi pada akhir 2007 terjadi krisis
finansial US. Harga minyak januari -Desember, dg range $60 -
90/barrel
Thn 2008, krisis global, harga minyak range $100- 39/barrel (bukan
angka Piet item, yg riil)
Dengan mempertimbangkan yg ditulis Pak Aris sebelumnya dan kondisi
ekonomi global serta kemungkinan supply-demand 2009, forecast
singkatnya:
-Konsumsi minyak dunia 2009 masih tetap lumayan tinggi, tetapi
sedikit lebih rendah dibanding 2007 dan 2008 atau turun HANYA
sekitar 0.5-0.6 persen atau tidak lebih 1%. Thn 2006 diabaikan krn
lebih rendah dibanding 2007/2008.
- Prediksi Harga Minyak Mentah: Low 35 ; High 52
Kita liat apakah akan terbukti, bisa di-trace mulai awal 2009 s.d.
Feb. 2009.
Lain2. Permintaan batubara masih cukup baik dan akan meningkat
apabila harga minyak kurang kondusif.
DISCLAIMER.
Regards
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Aria Bela Nusa"
<ariab...@...> wrote:
>
> The facts that the price of OIL has still been coming down, down
yet
> recently - despites of :>
> . USD is weakness to EUR
> . The OPEC cuts the quotas of production> .
> Winter seasons,
>
> . the bail-outs, etc
>
>
>
> The reasons behind we see that the above is no influence, effects
to price
> absolutely - are the demand (real - expected) would be decreasing
over the
> up-coming periods factually - recessions being previously faced in
some rich
> countries deepens further
>
>
>
> Happy Chuan,
>
>
>
> Aria
>
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