Federal Europe: The Next Superpower?
When it comes to the heights of global political and economic power a consenus
has grown up that this will be China's century. People are just now beginning
to get used to the idea that America is no longer the worlds only superpower.
With an economy that has been growing at 10% per year, and is still expected to
grow at 7-8% throughout the current global problems, along with a population
that dwarves any other country, China's wealth and political power are set to
make it a world leader over the coming decades.
The curent economic crises is only accentuating this transition, as america's
economic hegemony wains, and as Chinese politicians begin to find their voice
and realize ther power they have grown into. China could easliy fulfill the
definition of a superpower already, and her influence will rapidly grow in the
short and medium term future.
But where is Europe in all this? That is, after all, what this article is
about. If the United States is the established power, and China is the newly
emergent power, then Europe is generally thought of as the old power, long past
the height of its influence. it is easy to see why. The largest European
economies are about one seventh the size of the US, and this is reflected in
their military and political power.
But this fails to take into account 3 important factors:
Firstly, there are 5 European economies of around the size mentioned above, and
many others of a moderate size. The European economy taken as a whole, if it
were a sinlge country, would be easily the largest in the world. Europe is
already proving itself to be the biggest player in world trade negotiations.
Secondly, the newly expanded European Union includes many poorer eastern block
countries, with a much higher growth potential than fuly developed western
economies, meaning that over the coming decades Europe is likely to grow at a
substantially higher rate than places such as America.
Thirdly, and most crucially, all the pressure and momentum is towards greater
integration.
Many politicians in countries such as France and Germany are already explicitly
working towards a Federal Europe, and have been for many years; and there have
been constant incremental steps in this direction since the EU was founded. The
credit crunch is already pushing things further, with traditionally skeptical
countries such as the UK seeking pan-european solutions, and looking much more
seriously at the sinlge curency (as the British Pound slides in the currency
markets to record lows). But I believe that the real pressure is yet to come.
As the new economies, including not only China but also India, Brazil and
others, continue to grow, and as the government of these countires begin to
exert their new found influence, European countries accustomed to having a
strong voice in global politics will increasingly find themselves pushed out
and marginalized in the new world order. Britain in particular, usually the
ringleader of anti-federalism in Europe, will not find this new world easy to
accept. More and more the major European powers will find that they need to
stand together to be heard.
At the same time, with President Sarkozy moving France away from its old
socialist tendencies, with a strong consensus in Europe on the environment and
other issues, and with a resurgent Russia uniting its neighbours against it,
Europe is finding that it has more and more in common with every year that
passes.
For all these reasons, and more, I think that the surprise development of the
next few decades wil be an increasingly Federal, and hence increasingly
powerful Europe.
