# RE: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar saham

Embah2x yg saya hormati.. ada yg boleh bantu saya melihat harga wajar saham
PTBA?

Terimakasih J

From: RichardMux [mailto:richard...@gmail.com]
Sent: Tuesday, January 06, 2009 10:18 PM
To: 'obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com'
Subject: RE: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah

Hi El,

I used your method of calculation and came up with this result.

PTBA = 7700

Divident 45

45/7700*100=0.54

45/8%=562.5 . is this the true value of PTBA?

Thanks El..

Cheers, Richard.

From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
On Behalf Of Elaine Sui
Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 11:27 PM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Harga wajar samah

Listen to me. I'll explain this as simple as possible. Okay? First, you must
BUY now. That's all. lol.. okay seriously, you should consider comparing
stocks' DPR (dividend/price ratio) vs RFRR (Risk free rate of return) or
simply the average bank deposit rate + 1% spread.

Dividend/Price Ratio should NEVER be allowed to go above RFR ratio.
(otherwise it's undervalued)

Example:
Let's say a stock price is 1000. The dividend forecast is around 100. That
makes the DPR = 100/1000=10%. while the current risk free rate of return
(RFRR) is only at 8%

You see the DPR is higher than the current RFRR. So, the stock price MAY
adjust itself to have 8% DPR, means the stock price' fair value would be
around 100/8% = 1250. So the stock may advance around 25% from 1000 (to
1250) usually until the dividend is paid.

Let's say for other stock, the dividend forecast is only 10. That makes the
DPR = 10/1000=1%, this means the stock price is way too high compared to its
dividend. So the stock price MAY plunge to 10/8%= 125 at worst, usually soon
after the dividend is paid.

Case 1:
BUMI. On June 2008, BUMI price was 8000. The announced
gi-dividen-usd317-jt>  dividend was 111, and RFRR is, let's say, 8%. The
simple calculation would be 111/8% = 13xx. That'd be the fair value of BUMI.

Case 2:
INCO. On Nov 1, 2007, INCO announced
<http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/11/1/pt-inco-tbk-approves-an-interim-20
07-dividend-of-09787-per-share/>  that it'd pay a dividend of \$1 or around
IDR 9000. INCO was 100k/share. The RFRR is 8%, so INCO had a chance to rise
to 9000/8% = 112k before the dividend is finally paid. But the nickel price
was already plunged at that time, so the next dividend forecast fell, and so
did the price. The latest dividend cmiiw was around \$0.2, that makes current
fair value of INCO is around 25xx.

I made you confused, didn't I..? this post makes me less 'mysterious' lol
wth.. I guess you'd love to have a night class with Elaine.. j/k..

Elaine

2009/1/4 Richard S <richard...@gmail.com>

Para Suhu2x yg saya hormati.. saya sebagai newbi punya pertanyan fundamental
mohon bimbingannya ..
Bagai mana cari tau harga wajar sebuah saham, apakah dia uda terlalu mahal
untuk di beli ato sudah mura dan boleh di beli?

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