Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat akan recover.
On Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 12:13 PM, simon bolenang <simon_bolen...@yahoo.com>wrote: > Risetnya bikin muntah darah. > > Headline: Astra International: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse > than > what recent media reports indicated > > Abstract: January 4W sales fell 20% M/M, a negative surprise: 4W > vehicle sales in Indonesia declined to 31,634 units in > January—versus 34,000 unit sales, as indicated by Bloomberg. > Volumes fell 23% Y/Y and 20% M/M. > Vehicle sales have declined by 43% since October, and the pace of > contraction continues to accelerate. We believe our forecast that > vehicle sales will stabilize at 30,000 units per month faces downside > risks. We are wary of a sudden increase in market share: In the past > quarter, Astra’s market share rose to more than 60%. Although, we > expect Astra to gain market share in a downturn, we believe the > significant increase in its market share brings with it uncomfortable > memories. In late FY05/early FY06, Astra’s market share increase > resulted in large channel inventories and was followed by a decrease in > sales volume (please refer to Figure 1). If a similar pattern is > emerging, we are concerned that the recent increase in market share > could be symptomatic of rising channel inventories, which may not bode > well for volumes in coming months. > Downward > pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009, ASII’s stock > price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January > were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative > reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the > consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a > potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. > Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra. > We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is > in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is > in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra’s > subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to > our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle. > > > > > > >
