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-----Original
Message-----
From: Yuwono,
Dharwin [mailto:dharwin.yuw...@credit-suisse.com]
Sent: Monday, February 23,
2009 9:43
AM
To: Yuwono, Dharwin
Subject: CS Indo: IDR bottoming?- therefore
IDX may bottom? Sell INCO on Disappointing FY08!
Importance: High
Indonesia Equity
Sales
CS
Indo: IDR bottoming?– therefore IDX may bottom? Sell INCO on Disappointing
FY08!
MARKET:
IDR may stabilise soon? – therefore IDX may also
stabilise?
iSay:
I think IDR needs to stabilise, so IDX will also stabilise! As soon as IDR
stabilise, I think the carry trades into Fixed Incomes will resume again
(10-year IDR T-Bond Yield 14%), which normally will then may strengthen back
IDR. I still believe as soon as Obama’s
US
bail-out package executed over 2 years the USD will either flat or weaken! IDX
will normally lag the IDR T-Bond market to also rebound!! I am personally
hopeful for IDX to rebound between April-August (post 1Q09 results, post April
9th Parliamentary election, the local/Asian liquidity domination
until end of Summer, before the 2Q09 results out or markets revisiting their
currently recovering 2010 global economics
growth).
· IDR has been
weakening towards Rp12,000/USD lately, after the Low Rp13,000/USD on
November 21st
2008 and High
Rp10,700/USD on Janaury 7th 2009.
· Over the
weekend in Thailand, 1) Japan agreed to provide financial support worth
US$1.5billion for guaranteeing Indonesia’s 1st planned yen-denominated T-bond
(Samurai Bond), 2) Asean + Japan, China, South Korea agree to expand
cooperation
fund to USD120bn worth of foreign exchange reserves.
INTERNATIONAL
NICKEL (INCO): FY2008 Results below expectation- reit Take
Profit
iSay:
I continue to dislike industrial metals such as Nickel as global growth
continue
to worsen at least until mid-2009F! Sell both INCO and ANTM for
now!!
· Ami Tantri
(Daily): We retain our Neutral rating on the INCO but recommend investors to
take profit. PT INCO reported unaudited net profit of US$359mn in FY08, down
69%
Y/Y, implying net loss of US$9.8 mn in 4Q08 (lower than market expection due to
higher operating costs and other expenses). Total nickel in matte production
was
72,400 tonnes in FY08, down 6% Y/Y. The average realized price was
US$17,724/tonne in FY08, down 41% Y/Y. However, the total unit cost rose by 19%
Y/Y during the same period to US$11,415/tonne. Considering low nickel price
environment since late 2008, we also expect disappointing 1Q09 results from PT
INCO, with nickel price reached US$9,400/tonne last night.
· Total
capital expenditure projected for FY09 would be around US$229mn. As of December
2008, total cash position was US$166mn, the company is in net cash position.
· The
government of Indonesia has requested PT INCO and Antam (ANTM.JK, Rp1140.00,
NEUTRAL [V], TP Rp950.00) to discontinue the sale of nickel ore contract. PT
INCO was selling some nickel ore from Pomala area to Antam’s smelting plant in
the same location. The government has requested PT INCO to establish
feasibility
studies for development of Pomala and Bahodopi areas.
Best
Regards,
Dharwin
Yuwono, CFA
Director-
Indonesia
Equity Sales
PT Credit
Suisse Securities Indonesia
Sampoerna
Strategic Square, South
Tower, 23rd
Floor,
Jl. Jend
Sudirman Kav.45/46, Jakarta
12930,
Indonesia
Dealing:
+6221 2553 7920
Toll
Free: 001 800 1233 2526 (HK)
Toll
Free: +800 1233 2526 (SIN/UK/US)
Office
: +6221 2553 7978 Fax :
+6221 2553 7990
Mobile :
+62811 979 788 Email: dharwin.yuw...@credit-suisse.com
Please
follow the attached hyperlink to an important
disclaimer
http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/market_commentary_disclaimer_asia.shtml
1.
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