close 1940...selanjutnya noceng?
Cumi Cabe Ijo wrote:
> Mulai BT deh nungguin PGAS ngegasss lagi. WARNING: Cumi-cumi
> mengandung 1,170mg kolesterol per 10 gr, sedangkan daging ayam tanpa kulit
> hanya 50mg saja.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Danareksa Equity
> Research
> Sent: Friday, March 13, 2009 11:40 AM
> Subject: Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ, Rp 1,900 BUY) Lower gas
> selling prices offset by forex operating gains
> Perusahaan Gas Negara
>
> Lower gas selling prices offset by forex operating gains
>
> Stable selling
> prices
> Despite the fall in crude oil price,
> PGAS is confident that it can maintain its average selling price at
> US$5.5/mmbtu. This is similar to last year’s selling price. We concur with
> PGAS
> and now downgrade our average selling price estimate from US$6.0/mmbtu to a
> more
> realistic US$5.5/mmbtu. Meanwhile, PGAS has not indicated any declines in
> volumes. As such, we maintain our distribution volume estimate of 820mmscfd
> and
> our transmission volume estimate of 735mmscfd in
> FY09.
>
> Better operating
> cash flow from the weaker rupiah
> PGAS has a dollar based business
> model. Revenues are quoted in US dollars, as are costs and capex. At the
> operating level, PGAS benefits from the weaker rupiah since the company is a
> net
> receiver of foreign currency. Nonetheless, these gains are offset by forex
> losses which arise from its outstanding foreign loans. Thus, overall, PGAS
> still
> loses from the weaker rupiah because of its large foreign debt
> exposure.
>
> Future plans to
> build an LNG terminal
> PGAS is pretty much done with its
> pipeline network expansion. This leaves the extension of the West Java
> distribution pipeline (with expected completion
> in FY10) as the company’s only ongoing project. Looking ahead, PGAS is
> mulling
> the idea of whether to build an LNG receiving terminal. If the domestic
> demand
> increases, it would be very strategic for PGAS to have a receiving terminal.
> However, preliminary studies show that the project would only be feasible
> with
> gas volume of around 3.0mn tonnes per annum. Hence, as PGAS has only managed
> to
> secure gas supply of 1.2mn tonnes per annum from Bontang, the company is
> looking
> at the alternative option of building a floating receiving terminal instead.
> PGAS has so far declined to provide further details regarding its
> plans.
>
> Earnings
> revision
> We reduce our gas selling price
> estimate to US$5.5/mmbtu from US$6.0/mmbtu to take into account our concerns
> that PGAS will be unable to increase selling prices because of the slump in
> crude oil prices. However, we still believe that gas will remain competitive
> even if the crude oil price is around US$40 per barrel. Based on the energy
> content, we estimate that the gas price will be at par with the crude oil
> price
> if high speed diesel falls to Rp2,500/liter (currently it is Rp4,800 per
> liter).
>
> Maintain
> BUY
> We maintain a BUY recommendation on
> the counter with a target price of Rp2,450. Our gas selling price assumption
> has
> been reduced to US$5.5/mmbtu in FY09 but we don’t make changes to our sales
> volumes for either gas transmission or distribution. We also make changes to
> our
> exchange rate assumption to reflect the weaker rupiah. All in all, the lower
> earnings from the lower gas selling price estimate shall largely be offset by
> the weaker rupiah’s positive impact on the operating performance. Thus, there
> is
> no significant change to our numbers overall.
>
> Chandra
> S. Pasaribu
> (62-21) 351
> 0748
> chan...@danareksa. com
>
> ************ ****
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> The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions
> of the sender
> that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa
> (Persero) and its
> subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers,
> or acceptances
> of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and
> its subsidiaries
> does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of liabilities
> and/or damages
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> the entities
> concerned.
>
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