[ob] Re: Fw: BUMI Upgrade to BUY

[sylar_fang]

.. FM RDS/RDC udah pd collect BUMI sejak bulan kemaren ... arti na ? ...

:)


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Data Saham <datasaha...@...> wrote:
>
> para analis fundamental sudah mulai upgrade si BUMI...besok UPGRADE apalagi 
> ya :)
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> Still, 
> Cheapest Coal Stock…Upgrade to BUY 
> We 
> upgrade our recommendation on BUMI from Hold to BUY and put BUMI’s Target 
> price 
> back on its DCF valuation without any discount of Rp1.302. Higher 
> investor’s 
> risk appetite with huge liquidity on market justified our action to put 
> BUMI’s 
> on it’s normal valuation and ignoring corporate governance issues that 
> already 
> dimmed by now. With selling pressure easing and strong bullish momentum on 
> Indonesian market, we believe BUMI will get the most beneficiary as investor 
> start looking the cheapest stock available. 
> BUY. 
>    
> Higher Risk Appetite as the Main Catalyst on BUMI 
> Shares 
> We 
> believe, investor’s risk appetite currently are higher compared to last 
> quarter 
> on the back of optimism on bottoming global financial crisis and brighter 
> outlook on economic recovery. This will become the main catalyst on BUMI’s 
> shares on market as investor are become more eager to buy stocks, especially 
> the 
> cheapest one and ‘ignoring’ some risks behind it. 
>    
> Highest Liquidity among Others 
> Compared 
> to other peers, BUMI is the most liquid coal stocks on market with Ytd 
> average 
> turnover of  Rp243 bn/day compared 
> to peer’s average of just Rp60.8 bn/day. Even almost four times higher than 
> its 
> closest competitor of PTBA with only Rp64.6 bn/day. This should give BUMI the 
> best leverage when market starts to entry the bullish 
> path. 
>    
> Best 
> among the Under-owned Group 
> In 
> our view, BUMI is the best asset in Bakrie Group portfolio and also the 
> biggest 
> weighted on BNBR’s earning. As we know, Bakrie group stocks had 
> underperformed 
> the market since Oct ’08 after BNBR announced its liquidity problems and 
> result 
> in a Repo Mess.  Currently, those 
> selling pressure are overdone as BNBR liquidity profiles had improved and the 
> best will prevail. 
>    
> Don’t 
> Forget the Dividend Offer 
> Even 
> if we’re believe that this issues had mostly being factored in the market, 
> but 
> we are positive on BUMI’s huge dividend yield about 10% (Rp110/share) will 
> be 
> able to create a base on its price movement. Not many companies offer 10% 
> dividend yield for fiscal year of 2008, even not those 
> SOE’s. 
>   
> Valuation: Put BUMI back on its DCF Value of 
> Rp1302 
> We 
> eliminate our discount for BUMI’s DCF valuation and put our Target price of 
> Rp1.302 using WACC of 14,1% and 0% LTG. 
> Currently BUMI traded at        F09 
> PE/PBV of 3.2x/1.4x and EV/EBITDA of only 2x. Other peers average valuation 
> hovering at F09 PE/PBV of 5.3x/2.1x and EV/EBITDA of 2.9x. Evem with current 
> rally on stock prices, BUMI still the cheapest among others with    a lot 
> of un-factored positive 
> catalyst. BUY. 
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> Best Regards,
>  
> Adrianus Bias Prasuryo
> Analyst
> PT eTrading 
> Securities
> Wisma GKBI 17th floor
>