thanks...but i am just nobody, compared to our gurus in this milist...
Anyway, what i am fearing now is that the buying power may subside sometimes
in early January due to "weird" short term hedge funds maturity....so, the exit
points (for a temporary one) MIGHT be best done whenever the main index hits
around 1820-1860. and wait until consolidation is finished at 1690-1730 (which
could be in the second week of january or early february). On a very best
scenario, however, the main index may continue to try 2,000 by these
months...(referring to the January effect)
on individual stock like PGAS, i share most of my target with pak IAN
Situmorang...IDR14,000 MAY be easily to achieve in less than 2 months or even
faster than. BUMI: like or dislike...this company remains the holder of the
largest coal assets in the world...so, if demand for coal (which already
started by expression from India to import moe coal from Indonesia) is
increasing, BUMI and PTBA may benefit much. BUMI has IDR1,200 target, with
round number likely at IDR900 for further investment decision, while PTBA has
IDR3,900 target for 12 month investment with round number is likely at IDR3,500.
so, investment is on your call....
disclaimer mode remains ON
cheers
Bonardo Paruntungan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
yah.. complicated..
tapi makasih... kalu saya boleh komentar tentang
"keberanian pak FS beberapa waktu lalu tentang Indeks
tetap NORTH..." terjawab dengan statement "TLKM 7600"
dan "40 - 45 %"
jika boleh saya tanya lagi :
berapa persen lagi CONFIDENCEnya pak FS terhadap
INDEKS
1. PGAS
2. PTBA
3. BUMI
sektor energi yang belum "terdandani" sentimennya
adalah :
1. OIL
2. divestasi
3. DIREKSI
thanks sekali lagi atas ilmunya pak FS
--- Frederick Schubert <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Bonardo,
>
> on a technical base, we recognize the so-called
> trend in trend.... the wider one is bullish while
> the within the trend is a pull back and mild
> reversal to reflect consolidation...
>
> Anyway, on fundamental basis, which include things
> like fund flow analysis and management, some big
> foreign funds like Calpers and New York Trust have
> PRESUMABLY already started their investment in
> Indonesia. They started since Telkom was at
> IDR7,600. So, given an interest rate gap of between
> Indonesia and the U.S....let's say only 5.5% (now).
> If they have an indicative investment return of 12%
> (at the least and in terms of USD), they need to
> have their investment in Indonesia to increase by
> around 40%-45%, to reflect a proper margin and
> prepare a good quarter base reports....
>
> A bit complicated...but if eyeing deeper into the
> real incoming flow, we will find that all chart may
> point to the north....
>
> Today the main index may have its first
> consolidation, but may also swiftly rebound in the
> following days for investment maintannce....
>
> JUST SHARING....... hevaily disclaimer is ON
> Safe trading
>
> all best..
>
> Bonardo Paruntungan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> artinya... dan jika saya boleh tanya :
>
> - trendnya "dibungkus"
> a. akhir tahun
> b. penurunan rate
>
> ad. a saya cuman tau dari berita bahwa moment ini
> biasanya untuk "dandan" portfolio.. tapi toh
> sekarang
> sudah "terdandani" nah disini saya ingat ada pesan
> di
> milis ini dengan statement "ngak mungkin IHSG
> bear(di
> November- tembus 1700) karna terlalu mudah dan sudah
> dikit yang ada di market"
> jadi pertanyaanya "apakah psikologis trend bull itu
> sudah "dimakan" oleh retail atau malah baru saja
> psikologis "trend bull" dianut oleh retail (seperti
> saya misalnya)
>
> ad.b. saya quotasi dari pak FS.. ekspektasi /
> forecastnya ekonomi Indonesia adalah wajar, sehingga
> sentimen positif ke depan... atau kata lain sulit
> buat
> cari alasan untuk bear kec. teknikal....
>
> kalu saya boleh nanya pak FS.. kalu ekspektasinya di
> ZERO ini gimana? misal rate tetep aja di 10%? ini
> misalnya...
>
> trims..
> note : pak oentoeng.. kalu ada orang bilang terima
> kasih artinya makin "banyak rejeki" hahaa... =D
>
> --- Aria Bela Nusa <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > Jawabannya, mungkin krn kita telah terbiasa
> > mengikuti trends (arahnya) -
> > FOLLOW THE TRENDS (& MOMENTUM), THE TRENDS IS YOUR
> > FRIENDS) -
> > lama-kelamaan kita tahu arahnya mau ke mana scr
> > bertahap dg berjalannya
> > waktu - shg kita dapet 'membaca' tanda2 (signals)
> > market kehendaknya mau
> > ke mana pula (scr simultan)...
> >
> > :) Saya pernah lihat buku JL (biografi yg
> berisikan
> > banyak banget
> > foto2-nya) - kelihatannya sangat flamboyan
> > orangnya...
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Aria
> >
> >
> > > persis seperti yg Jesse Livermore lakukan...dia
> > tidak pernah berusaha
> > > memprediksi trend, he just FOLLOW the trend.
> > > Tapi anehnya dia bisa tau ketika US market mau
> > crash...bukankah ini
> > > disebut sebagai predictor juga??
> > > Saya lagi baca buku "Trade like Jesse
> > Livermore"..emang hebat ni orang,
> > > determinasinya tidak ada duanya.
> > > Sayang dia harus mengakhiri hidupnya dengan
> bunuh
> > diri
> > >
> > > jsx_consultant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > wrote:
> > > TREND FOLLOWER vs TREND PREDICTOR
> > >
> > > Michael Covel bilang:
> > > - Dari pada bikin PREDIKSI (Predictor) mending
> > jadi Follower
> > > aja...
> > >
> > > Who CAN predict the market ?, HAYO NGACUNG...
> > >
> > > But EVERYBODY can follow the TREND...
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ---------------------------------
> > > Everyone is raving about the all-new Yahoo! Mail
> > beta.
> >
> >
>
>
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