Volume produksi turun karena diwilayah sangatta (land penambangan BUMI) curah hujannya sangat tinggi..., dan hujan disana rata-rata lebat sekali...
2009/5/4, Vaulstrad <vaulst...@yahoo.com>: > > Sekedar Info, kok volume turun yah? Ada apa ama BUMI??? > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------\ > ---------------------- > > > Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) 1Q09 results is not looking good. While 1Q09 > net profit of US$125m amounts to 27%/09CL, the 1Q net profit number was > down by 20% QoQ. Note that Bumi was the only Indonesian coal company > posting quarterly profit decline. See comments by Olie: > > * Bumi Resources posted a net profit of US$m125m in 1Q09, up by > 21% YoY while representing around 27% of our full year 2009 > forecasts. > > * The result was not that encouraging, in our view, particularly > since 1Q09 net profit was actually down by 20% QoQ, with Bumi coal > ASP fell by 6% QoQ. Bumi was the only Indonesian coal company > posting quarterly profit decline. > > * Profit in 1Q09 was helped by lower than assumed tax rate. > > * Production volume was down by 9% YoY and 24% QoQ in 1Q09. > > * Cash cost in 1Q09 was down by 11% YoY and 17% QoQ, a > reflection of the sharp decline in fuel costs. > > * Little evidences of profit contribution coming from the two > recently acquired assets. > > * We calculated that even assuming a flat QoQ ASP in 2Q09, there > is 3% to 5% downside risk to our assumed ASP in FY09, hence 11% to > 18% risk on earnings. > > * Bumi Resources is the one with the most leverage to coal > price, hence a play on commodity price recovery. Selling pressure on > the name seems to have abated as well with group debt restructuring > gradually progressing. Nonetheless, the recent operating and financial > results were not encouraging while Bumi continue to be affected by > significant balance sheet risk and governance issue. Bumi is trading at > PER09 of 6.0, almost at par with domestic peers, despite the higher > risks. We retain our SELL rating. > > * Please see a more detailed explanation below. Note that full > version financial statement has yet to be available. > > > > > > US$m > > 1Q09 > > 1Q08 > > YoY chg > > 4Q08 > > QoQ chg > > Revenue > > 753 > > 664 > > 13% > > 945 > > -20% > > Gross Profit > > 393 > > 250 > > 57% > > 538 > > -27% > > Operating Profit > > 283 > > 161 > > 76% > > 360 > > -21% > > Pre-tax profit > > 213 > > 147 > > 44% > > 332 > > -36% > > Net profit > > 125 > > 103 > > 21% > > 155 > > -20% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Gross margin > > 52% > > 38% > > > > 57% > > > > Operating margin > > 38% > > 24% > > > > 38% > > > > Pre-tax margin > > 28% > > 22% > > > > 35% > > > > Net > > 17% > > 16% > > > > 16% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Coal production (m tonnes) > > 11.6 > > 12.8 > > -9% > > 15.3 > > -24% > > Coal sales (m tonnes) > > 11.3 > > 12.5 > > -10% > > 13.6 > > -17% > > Strip ratio (bcm/t) > > 11.5 > > 9.3 > > 24% > > 8.7 > > 33% > > Average FOB price (US$/t) > > 74.5 > > 58.0 > > 29% > > 79.6 > > -6% > > Cash cost (US$/t) > > 27.5 > > 30.7 > > -11% > > 33.1 > > -17% > > Production cost (US$/t) > > 31.8 > > 33.0 > > -4% > > 34.3 > > -7% > > > > * Bumi Resources posted a net profit of US$m125m in 1Q09, up by > 21% YoY while representing around 27% of our full year 2009 > forecasts. > > * The result was not that encouraging, in our view, particularly > since 1Q09 net profit was actually down by 20% QoQ, with Bumi coal > ASP fell by 6% QoQ. Bumi was the only Indonesian coal company > posting quarterly profit decline. > > * Note also that profit in 1Q09 was helped by lower than assumed > tax rate, with actual tax rate of 14% in 1Q09 as compared to our > assumption of 28% in FY09. > > * Production volume was down by 9% YoY and 24% QoQ in 1Q09. > Management stated that unusually heavy rainfall during the period > was the main culprit for lower production. The management also > mentioned that overburden removal actually went up by 24% YoY to > 146.6m bcm in Q109 and this should allow Bumi to step up coal > extraction once weather conditions normalize. At this juncture, we think > 57m tonnes of coal production this year, up by 10% YoY, still > achievable. > > * Cash cost in 1Q09 was down by 11% YoY and 17% QoQ, a > reflection of the sharp decline in fuel costs. > > * As details are not available, at the moment, it is difficult > to see any evidences of profit contribution coming from the two > recently acquired assets, the mining contractor, Dharma Henwa, and > the coal mine, FBS, both are operating companies. Note that net > profit in 1Q09 was actually lower than that in 4Q08, before these > two companies were acquired. > > * With regards to ASP, we had expected relatively flat quarterly > price in 1Q09 instead of a 6% QoQ decline, since coal prices in > 4Q08 and 1Q09, presumably, were based on 2008 contracts. We > understand that Bumi has contracted 81% of its production this > year, but priced 51% of the tonnage only. We therefore think there > is downside risk to our 2009 ASP assumptions of US$66/t in Fy09, > especially after a 42% YoY decline in benchmark contract price and > an even steeper decline in spot price. We calculated that even assuming > a flat QoQ ASP in 2Q09, there is 3% to 5% downside risk to our > assumed ASP in FY09 hence 11% 18% risk on earnings. Bumi > management, at the moment, is still maintaining price guidance of > mid US$60 in FY09 and likely to give new guidance in mid May. > Bumi Resources is the one with the most leverage to coal price, > hence a play on commodity price recovery. Selling pressure on the > name seems to have abated as well with group debt restructuring > gradually progressing. Nonetheless, the recent operating and financial > results were not encouraging while Bumi continue to be affected by > significant balance sheet risk and governance issue. Bumi is trading at > PER09 of 6.0, almost at par with domestic peers, despite the higher > risks. We retain our SELL rating. > > > Daniel Oen > CLSA Indonesia | Institutional Sales > Phone: (62-21) 2554-8802 > Toll free - HK: 800-938-000 > Toll free - SIN: 800-621-1104 > Toll free - US: 800-460-2581 > daniel....@clsa.com <mailto:daniel....@clsa.com> > CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing > this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal > and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at > https://www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html > <https://www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html> or sent to you upon request. > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "sylar_fang" <sylar_f...@...> > wrote: >> >> >> >> .. siipp ... hr ini ane udah collect BUMI ama UNSP ... >> >> :) >> >> >> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jkunci@ wrote: >> > >> > Setujjjj.............uuuuu >> > >> > >> > >> > Sent from my BlackBerry® >> > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT >> > >> > -----Original Message----- >> > From: "Tasrul" Tasrul@ >> > >> > Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:51:02 >> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> > Subject: RE: [ob] Re: BUMI I pentoengg to cheer you guyss >> > >> > >> > Kalau mau cuan BUMI minggu depan, sebaiknya kita silent dulu...biar > aja >> > market yg kerja...jangan diusik-usik dengan nanya target, support > dll.. >> > >> > >> > >> > Setuju ? >> > >> > >> > >> > ________________________________ >> > >> > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> > [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of re...@trade >> > Sent: Friday, April 24, 2009 4:39 PM >> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> > Subject: Re: [ob] Re: BUMI I pentoengg to cheer you guyss >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > update chartnya dong...anyone? Prof JT mana ya? >> > >> > lagi liburan juga nih kayaknya... >> > >> > On Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 4:05 PM, indeksbei3000@ >> > <mailto:indeksbei3000@ > wrote: >> > >> > Hammer Time Cheer Me Up :) >> > Sekarang Candlenya apa Yah ? >> > >> > Happy Weekend Pak Tirta >> > Sent from my BlackBerry(r) >> > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT >> > >> > >> > -----Original Message----- >> > From: "tirta858" tirta858@ <mailto:tirta858@ > >> > >> > Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:59:25 >> > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> > <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > >> > Subject: [ob] Re: BUMI I pentoengg to cheer you guyss >> > >> > >> > Mayan mayan kalo gak naek kita paling hitler buat pentoengginn >> > >> > >> > >> > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> > <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com , "otty_pras" <otty_pras@> >> > wrote: >> > > >> > > sayang kurang ideal, bukan pentung putih [close +] >> > > >> > > tapi mudah2an ok lah hari ini .... badai berlalu >> > > >> > > >> > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com >> > <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com , "tirta858" <tirta858@> > wrote: >> > > > >> > > > It's Hamm'a time >> > > > >> > > > http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/589/bumii.png >> > <http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/589/bumii.png> >> > > > >> > > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > ------------------------------------ >> > >> > >> > + + >> > + + + + + >> > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus >> > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. >> > + + + + + >> > >> > + +Yahoo! Groups Links >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > ------------------------------------ >> > >> > >> > + + >> > + + + + + >> > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus >> > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. >> > + + + + + >> > >> > + +Yahoo! Groups Links >> > >> > >> > (Yahoo! ID required) >> > >> > mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com >> > <mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > -- >> > Sent from gTrader >> > >> > >
