Ya kalo gak ada yang mau SELL, mana ada yang bisa BUY?

Q: Cumi-cumi mempunyai delapan kaki atau delapan tangan?


On Tue, May 5, 2009 at 8:38 AM, Sanjaya <mysanjaya...@gmail.com> wrote:

>
>
>  Analisa Citi utk BUMI TP. Rp.580….. any comment?
>
>
>
> Komoditas sudah mulai naik panggung, kok BUMI dipasang target serendah itu?
> Mau nampung barang murah kali….
>
> *Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK)*
>
> *Sell: Unexciting 1Q09 Earnings*
>
> v *Reiterate Sell *— We reiterate our Sell (3S) rating with target price
> of Rp580. At
>
> current PE of 10.1x 2009E (30% premium to peers), the stock is unattractive
>
> in our view given unconvincing 1Q09 earnings (while we expect 2Q-4Q
>
> earnings to trend down on lower coal prices), and higher balance sheet
> risk.
>
> v *1Q09 earnings: production & sales disappointed *— Bumi’s 1Q09 operating
>
> profit rose 76% y-y and accounted for 27% of our full-year. In our view,
> the
>
> 1Q09 performance was unexciting with production and sales falling (by ~10
> yy),
>
> although this was partly offset by the drop in cash cost (-10% y-y) and
>
> higher ASP (+30% y-y).
>
> v *Expect earnings to trend down in 2Q09 onwards *— Bumi says that it now
> has
>
> 4mt of coal in inventory. The management guides 2009 ASP to be in mid-
>
> US$60s/t, reflecting the lower regional coal contract price (vs. our
> forecast of
>
> US$60/t). Thus, we expect Bumi’s earnings to trend down in the coming
>
> quarters. At present, the company has contracted 80% of its volume.
>
> v *Balance sheet *— Despite US$267mn of EBITDA in 1Q09, net debt position
> saw
>
> only a slight decline to US$1.18bn from US$1.3bn in December ’08 (taking
>
> into account the US$300mn ST investments). This partly reflected a big jump
>
> in 1Q09 capex to US$119mn.
>
>
> 
>

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