Hihihi, baru nyadar tuh si CS. Ketinggalan kereta bro, sekarang mah waktunya


Masa kalah sama trader kampoeng, gue sih udah ngajak sejak Februari,











From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
On Behalf Of Herman
Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 11:41 AM
To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups. Com
Subject: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII,
BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) & UNTR


Indonesia Equity Sales 

CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade
ASII (21,200) & UNTR (11,400)!

ASIAN EQ STRATEGY: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight- Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR

iSay: Asian Strategist Sakthi Siva is now Overweight Indonesia with Top-3
Picks in her model portfolio- ASII, BUMI & UNTR. Indonesian Strategist Arief
Wana has his Top-5 Picks in Indonesia ASII, PGAS, UNTR, BBRI & TLKM. At JCI
1,798pts, CS Indonesia Universe is currently trading on 13.0x-10.4x
2009F-2010F respectively (after recent upgrades in Astra, Banks, and United
Tractors), and assuming valuation of 12x 2010F PER (historical average circa
13x rolling forward PER), JCI could hit 2,100pt at year end.


*         Sakthi Siva (Flash Report): We are upgrading Indonesia to
OVERWEIGHT from Neutral - cheap Cyclicals, and Singapore to OVERWEIGHT from
Underweight. In our reports on 23 April and 4 May, Any Cheap Cyclicals
Left?, we suggested that Indonesian coal was trading at a 176% discount to
the region. We are funding these upgrades by trimming our Overweight calls
on China (up 96% from the October lows, the best performer) and Korea. Top
picks in Indonesia- we are keeping Astra International but adding Bumi
Resources and United Tractors. 

ASTRA INT'L (ASII): Upgrades on better loans loss & UNTR upgrade- reit Core

iSay: At Rp18,950/share, ASII is trading on Undemanding 10.3x-9.1x
2009F-2010F PER, and 11% Discount to SOTP Rp21,200/share. I agree with Arief
Wana that ASII is a Core Holding in Indonesia, due to quality management,
diversified earnings from both Resources and Domestic Consumers-related
sectors, and solid balance sheet!


*         Arief Wana (Daily): Astra's 1Q09 results showed positive
developments on two key fronts, namely 1) loss on repossessed assets and 2)
strong United Tractors' performance. Coupled with a lower tax rate, we are
upgrading our forecasts by 12-17% for FY09E-10E and TP to Rp21,200 (from
Rp14,500 previously).

*         Loss on reposessed assets, which was the major dragging factor in
the 2006 crisis, was not a factor so far. In our view, this could suggest 1)
better, resilient purchasing power in general and 2) better control over
financing activities. We halve our loss estimates to Rp500bn (vs. 1Q09 of
only Rp67bn and 2006 of Rp949bn).

*         In addition, we have upgraded United Tractors by 17-42% on the
back of higher ASPs, weaker rupiah, and therefore margins (please see
note/Daily below).

*         Although we expect auto volume to remain soft this year (and
bottoming in 2Q09), we continue to like Astra International as a core
holding for the Indonesian market given its strong market positioning,
conservative management and strong balance sheet. Our new TP of Rp21,200
implies a 10.2-11.5x FY09E-10E PER (which is relatively in line with the
market for FY10E) and 5.3-5.7x FY09E-10E EV/EBITDA multiples. We maintain
our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock.

UNITED TRACTORS (UNTR): Still Positive, Upgrade EPS & TP (Rp11,400)- reit

iSay: At Rp9,000/share, UNTR is trading on Undemanding 9.8x-9.1x 2009F-2010F
PER, and 21% Discount to SOTP Rp11,400/share. I agree with Arief Wana that
UNTR deserves a premium to coal sector and market due to quality management
and solid balance sheet, while offering a unique leverage play on Indonesian
coal production growth with Upside from Coal mines acquisitions!


*         Arief Wana (Daily, Report emailed yesterday): We have just
published a report on United Tractors (UT). UT's robust 1Q09 results,
stemming from higher ASPs, a weaker IDR and therefore margins - due to
inventory gains and a bigger proportion of higher margins in the parts and
services division - have beaten our as well as the street's expectations.

*         The strong results reaffirm our view that UT's business is not
only resilient, but also offers positive leverage on a weaker IDR. We have
therefore upgraded our forecasts by 17-42% over FY09-11E (putting our
forecasts 13-23% above the street's), while maintaining our volume

*         Despite the positive share price performance, we believe that the
recovery in equipment volumes and strong earnings are likely to be the main
catalysts for the company. Low gearing should give UT flexibility for future
expansion. We have increased our sum-of-the-parts-based (SOTP) target price
by 24% to Rp11,400 (from Rp9,200), implying 27% upside, a P/E multiple of
11.5x FY10E and 5.8x FY10E EV/EBITDA. We therefore maintain our OUTPERFORM
rating on the stock.


Best Regards,

Dharwin Yuwono, CFA

Director- Indonesia Equity Sales


PT Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia

Sampoerna Strategic Square, South Tower, 23rd Floor,

Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav.45/46, Jakarta 12930, Indonesia

Dealing: +6221 2553 7920

Toll Free: 001 800 1233 2526 (HK)

Toll Free: +800 1233 2526 (SIN/UK/US)

Office : +6221 2553 7978       Fax : +6221 2553 7990

Mobile : +62811 979 788         Email: dharwin.yuw...@credit-suisse.com


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