71-80 saya percaya mbah...100 bahaya bisa resesi lagi....hehehe
GBU all
________________________________
From: jsx_consultant <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, May 8, 2009 7:17:39 PM
Subject: [ob] Re: Fw: FOCUS (08-May-2009) BNBR: For those who miss the rally
Baca pdf researh Mandiri dibawah ini:
- BUMI fair price 1815, hari ini 1960. Masih cocok dibanding yg
kasih cuman 500... hehehe...
- UNSP fair price 250, hari ini 690. Ada yg punya research
pembanding untuk UNSP ?.
- BTEL fair price 68, hari ini 107.
- ENRG fair price 180, hari ini 280.
- ELTY fair price 250, hari ini 210
- BNBR fair price 106 based on fair price anak perusahan,
fair price 129 based on market price anak perusahaan hari ini.
Cuman ELTY dan BNBR yang belum mencapai Fair price.
Kalo EL mau BNBR akhir tahun menjadi 400, maka saham
anak perusahaan harus naik = 400/129 = 3,1 kali.
Jadi akhir tahun:
- BUMI harus menjadi = 3,1 x 1960 = 6076
- UNSP = 3,1 X 690 = 2139
- dst.
Target BNBR EL sangat berat sekali kecuali minyak balik
diatas 100 dollar.
Ada yg percaya minyak balik ke 100 pada akhir tahun ?.
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, indra affandi <indras...@. ..> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> For those who miss the rally
>
> BNBR’s listed
> subsidiaries, which contribute 84.5% to BNBR value, have experienced average
> 142.9% stock price rally for the last 1 month while BNBR stock price only
> increased by 66.0%. Debt restructuring amounting to Rp4.26tn relaxed
> solvability pressure by lengthening debt maturity date. Beside that, SPIJ
> sale,
> resulted in US$55.5mn additional cash, strengthened the company’s cash
> position. The stock is undervalued with current market price putting BNBR as
> if
> it o nly had BUMI and ELTY, neglecting the remaining listed and non-listed
> subsidiaries. Using SOTP method, we deem BNBR fair price of Rp129/share based
> on market price and Rp106/share based on our estimated fair price on listed
> subsidiaries’ values.
>
> Lower solvability risk. The company
> entered into debt restructuring agreement that provides some relaxation after
> high solvability tension resulting from its Rp4.26tn obligation to Northstar
> consortium which originally scheduled to mature this year. Basically, this
> debt
> restructuring agreed on (1) lengthening debt maturity (Rp310bn on 2009, and
> Rp3.95tn on 2012), and (2) charging interest expense (15.0%-19.0% ) that will
> be
> deferred and paid as a bullet payment along with principal maturity.
>
> Stronger cash position. In late April
> 2009, the company sold 24.5% ownership in SPIJ, steel pipe manufacture
> subsidiary, raising US$55.5mn cash. We view it positively because (1) SPIJ has
> been less profitable relative to BNBR’s listed subsidiaries, and (2) the
> proceeds ensure the company’s solvability to meet its Rp279.0bn tranche B
> debt which l matures on Sept 2009.
>
> Buy BNBR, get UNSP, BTEL,
> and ENRG for free! A check on BNBR value composition reveals
> that at the current price of Rp83/share, BNBR value is approximately equal to
> its ownership only in BUMI and ELTY. Therefore, rather than collecting all of
> BNBR’s subsidiaries stocks individually, it would be more profitable to
> acquire them collectively by buying BNBR shares. Moreover, investors would get
> not only its listed subsidiaries, but also its non-listed infrastructure
> subsidiaries. These non-listed subsidiaries have already won several
> infrastructure projects which are expected to start in the next couple of
> years, once the economy recovers.
>
> Valuation. We derived
> BNBR’s fair price using SOTP method. We apply a book-value multiple of
> 1.0x to value the non-listed subsidiaries. For listed subsidiaries, we use
> market prices and Mandiri Sekuritas’ fair price estimate separately
> (except for ENRG that uses consensus fair price estimate because it is outside
> our coverage). Market price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
> Rp129/share while fair price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
> Rp106/share.
>
> What are the risks?Main risks in
> investing on BNBR stock are changes in ownership on its subsidiaries and
> commodity price fluctuation that heavily impacted BUMI, UNSP and ENRG
> performance.
>
>
> Yohan Setio
> +6221
> 5296 9548
> yohan.setio@ ...
> Plaza
> Mandiri 28th floor
> Fax:
> +62 21 527 5711
> Phone:
> +62 21 526 3445
>
>
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