baca kolom rosihan anwar di kompas hari ini.

On 5/9/09, Vic <> wrote:
> Kalla's last hurrah
> JAKARTA, May 9 — It is easy to be persuaded that everything that has gone on
> in the deeply-divided Golkar party over the past few months may have been an
> elaborate charade, designed to railroad Indonesian Vice-President Jusuf
> Kalla and perhaps to earn some leverage in the process.
> Short of an unforeseen dive in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's
> fortunes, Kalla's partnership with former General Wiranto of the People's
> Conscience Party (Hanura) as running mate is looking very much like an
> honourable exit — or what one member calls "a final solution".
> But however badly he does in the July 9 presidential election, one thing is
> for sure: Golkar will almost certainly be back in the embrace of Yudhoyono's
> majority Democratic Party by year's end, if not a good deal sooner.
> Golkar won't get the vice-presidency this time, but Yudhoyono will ensure it
> has enough Cabinet seats to guarantee at least a large measure of its
> loyalty in the new 560-seat House of Representatives.
> Yudhoyono's choice of a semi-independent running mate, such as Central Bank
> governor Boerdiono or State Secretary Hatta Radjasa, would take a lot of the
> usual party horse-trading out of play. These two certainly appear to be the
> front runners ahead of the scheduled announcement on Monday, but nothing is
> certain. As one minister said: "SBY just loves to make us all speculate
> until the very end."
> As a minority leader in 2004, Yudhoyono found himself an unwitting hostage
> to Golkar's will. This time around, he is dealing from a position of
> strength — and is being urged to put his stamp on the new administration
> from the get-go.
> If boldness becomes the President's new-found friend, that may mean more
> technocrats and non-party people in key posts to push the government's
> unfinished reform agenda and secure the President's 10-year legacy.
> This is, after all, a presidential system. While Yudhoyono must work with
> Parliament, his ministers say that the number of seats in Parliament does
> not really count when money takes precedence over party discipline.
> The numbers game everyone loves to follow is simply that — a game. It will
> remain so until the main political parties understand what they stand for
> and lawmakers represent the constituents who elect them.
> Kalla's fate was sealed early last month when Yudhoyono's Democratic team
> asked Golkar to suggest two other nominees, in addition to Kalla, as the
> President's running mate.
> It now seems clear that in turning his back on the Golkar chairman, the
> President was also taking care to send a message to former leader Akbar
> Tandjung and other Kalla rivals that he still valued Golkar in a new
> coalition.
> Ministerial sources say that while Yudhoyono and Kalla are not the bitter
> rivals media reports have always suggested, the President was particularly
> irritated over Kalla's remark in early 2006 that he was being treated like a
> spare tyre.
> For some analysts, the impulsive Sulawesi businessman had in fact become a
> fifth wheel who had more power than any vice-president before him and was
> often not slow in using it — admittedly, sometimes to the good.
> The Vice-President must have realised months ago that with his support in
> Golkar dwindling and the polls forecasting the party's worst-ever showing in
> the April 9 legislative elections, he was living on borrowed time.
> But he was still encouraged to get out and run. Even so, party sources say
> that while he was given a full mandate to explore the possibility of putting
> together a coalition to run for the presidency, he was asked to report back
> to the party before making a decision.
> The fact that he chose Wiranto without doing that earned him a rebuke from
> the party's district chapters, many of whom are Tandjung loyalists. A
> majority of the 33 provincial chapters now want to go back to the Democrats.
> It all seems rather cruel, frankly. But then Tandjung, for one, remembers
> how he was undermined by Kalla years ago when he unwisely sought to take
> Golkar into a coalition with Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic
> Party-Struggle.
> Meanwhile, with the Vice- President seemingly on the ropes, Chief Welfare
> Minister Aburizal Bakrie appears to be the leading contender to assume the
> chairmanship of Golkar at the party's convention, which has now been brought
> forward from December to August.
> Party sources claim that Kalla advanced the date so he could still use the
> power of the vice-presidency to put forward political ally Surya Paloh, head
> of the party's advisory council, as his replacement.
> Whether that will work at this point is doubtful. Despite several business
> setbacks, Bakrie has been Golkar's leading financier and, according to
> insiders, continues to provide 10 billion rupiah (RM3.4 million) a month to
> cover the party's administrative expenses. — Straits Times


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