Jum'at 5 january 2007, NICKEL naik tajam karena ada hujan deras di tambang BHP
di Koolgorie & MINARA ( total 90000 MT Nickel , 1/3 supply dunia dari sini) ,
sehingga smelternya macet tutup beberapa hari. So karena supply dari BHP
terhitung besar. Yah ngaruh. Senin ini setelah Smelter BHP jalan lagi, Nickel
turun dari 34200USD/MT jadi 33100USD/MT.
Bakal ada koreksi di semua komoditas, termasuk nickel. Tetapi crucial level
nickel ada di LME stok nya cuma 6000MT, memang stok LME , barely enough for 1
day consumption. Dan sudah berbulan2 nggak pernah bisa melebihi 8000MT. Kalo
level 8000MT terlampaui sepertinya ada koreksi besar utk nickel.
Harga nickel yg naik hampir 200% tahun 2006 juga dikarenakan,
jumlah smelter yg nggak mencukupi.
Labor strike tahun 2006 di ERAMET, XTRATA, INCO Goro, malah sampai sekarang
hubungan antara labor dan manajemen masih belum harmonis. Sesuatu sangat klasik
di negara maju kalo ada kenaikan harga komoditas tambang, biasanya buruh
tambang minta kenaikan upah (bukan BONUS! seperti di Indonesia), terus mogok.
Tapi kalo harga komoditas turun, mereka nggak mau turun upah...akhirnya lay
off! ( baca buku2 JIM ROGERS , kelakuan buruh tambang aneh!)
Demand growth dari Cina, India. Mudah2an growth masih tinggi!
"Mr. T" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
I think the main problem with base metals is that Traders have been
sitting on very large gains since last year,
upwards to 150% profits, especially in Nickel. Also supply has been very slowly
increasing, with the rise of
new and reopened mines. Invest carefully in metals producers stocks, profit
taking could easily wipe out a large
profit....
----- Original Message ----
From: Rei <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, January 6, 2007 10:51:34 PM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: INCO, still a buy?
Saya agak bingung, dari berita di bawah dikatakan bahwa harga nickel bisa
anjlok tapi dari beberapa post lain di milis ini bilang bahwa output nickel
berkurang yg menyebabkan harga naik pesat. Bisa ada yg jelaskan ke saya?
Maklum, agak tulalit...thanks!
Salam,
Agung Sugiharto <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com> wrote:
Sharing info: status jumat terakhir (malam waktu north america):
Nickel price sudah pada level 34.4 usd/mt. naik berat ini dari yg sebelumnya
karena stock nickel di LME sangat kurang. tentu ada akibat dari kurangnnya
produksi Inco juga!
nah ..tunggu hari Senin investor dari luar akan berebut sahamnya Inco! jangan
sampai ketinggalan. . kalau mau pegang sebentar mah gampang nyampe 32 ribu..
analisa investor itu harga Inco di level sekitar 40 ribu! ini hitungan
konservative. .
Zinc/Timah juga akan tambah bagus harganya, jadi TINS kemungkinan akan naik
lagi.. cooper & alluminium?? bisa dibaca di bawah ini..
salam, aGoeng
Nickel could be hit by index reweighting next week
Bianca Markram 5 January 2007 Metal Bulletin News Alert Service
Base metals, in particular nickel, could fall even harder next week at the
London Metal Exchange as index funds sell off large portions of their long
metals positions as they adjust their funds' exposure for 2007, traders said.
The meteoric rise in prices last year means that the Dow Jones AIG and
Goldman Sachs Commodities indices must sell significant positions to ensure
that their funds' investment in metals - the number of contracts held - is the
same as a percentage of the funds' total value as at the start of last year,
traders said. Nickel and zinc are expected to be the hardest hit because
they have risen the most since the start of last year: the three-month prices
on January 3 were 135 percent and 107 percent higher respectively than January
3 2006. This could mean that as much as 20,000-25,000 tonnes of nickel and
150,000 tonnes of zinc will be sold by AIG and Goldman Sachs
in the coming week, traders said. The sale of nickel eqates to 800 lots of
nickel per day over a five-day period, one trader noted. "Base metals have
grown more in 2006 than energy, so it is widely thought that both AIG Dow Jones
and Goldman Sachs will be net sellers of base metals in the coming weeks," said
Jim Lennon, analyst at Macquarie Bank. The adjustment by the indices goes
some way to explaining the terrible start to new year trading, which saw copper
trade at nine-month lows on three consecutive days, traders said. With
copper showing some signs of recovery on Friday, some traders said the indices
had probably carried out the adjustment, but others speculated that the worst
could be to come. "Everyone's shell-shocked. It's like what the hell was
that. Was that it or is there more to come?" asked a senior official at an LME
ring dealer. "The selling we've seen in base metals this week could have
been prompted by the news of the indices'
prospective rebalancing, " said a second London trader. "People saw the news
and said: 'We have to get out before all of that metal gets dumped on the
market next week.'" "It is also possible that the indices have already
started rebalancing their positions, and that this is what's behind the drops
we've seen this week." "But if all of this metal still has to come to the
market, we're in for a serious nose-dive in base metals prices," he warned.
Traders pointed to nickel which has stood out because it has shown no signs of
coming under pressure - on Friday, the three-month price rose as high as
$34,400 per tonne from $32,475 on Tuesday when trading resumed after the new
year bank holiday. "That [nickel tonnage] should be huge and could see
nickel plunging to the low $20,000-range, " said a third London trader. "And
yet nickel has been continuing to trade in the high $32,000 to the low $33,000
range." The AIG and Goldman Sachs indices both list nickel,
zinc, copper and aluminium and Goldman Sachs also has lead. Neither
company would comment on the situation
----- Original Message ----
From: EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com>
To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Friday, January 5, 2007 4:24:29 PM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: INCO, still a buy?
Sebenernya di laporan keuangan q3 2006 sudah kelihatan dari
JUNI-SEPTEMBER 2006 laba bersih naik 100% dibandingkan JUNI-SEPTEMBER 2005.
Rata2 Q3 juni-september ada di 20000USD/MT. Itu gabungan rata Nickel Matte
(lebih murah 2 USD/lb), Bijih Nickel, dan Batangan.
Kalo dilihat Q1-2007 rata2 bisa antara 28000-30000USD/ MT.
agung2a <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com> wrote:
kalau tahun lalu rata2 harga nickel cuman sekitar 10K USD/MT sekarang
harga nickel jadi 30K USD/MT >>> bisa dibayangkan keuntungan perusahan
nickel tahun 2006 vs 2005?? pasti naiklah harga saham Inco kalau
keuntungannya 3 kali lipat dari tahun lalu!!
Beli sekarang dan tunggu laporan keuntungannya! ! tinggal ongkang-
ongkang kaki aja ..
aGoeng..
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED] ..>
wrote:
>
> Masih bisa target apabila:
>
> Nickel USD 25000/MT---> Rp47000
> Nickel USD 34000?MT---> Rp 60000,-
> highwaystar91 <highwaystar91@ ...> wrote:
> Para sesepuh,
>
> Teman saya ada yg nanya apakah dia masih dapat beli INCO sekarang?
> Trims!
>
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