*Untuk question 2, apabila sesuai ekspektasi management, dengan akuisisi 3
tambang batubara yang baru saja dilakukan awal tahun ini dan apabila FBS
dapat berproduksi maksimal sesuai perjanjian kerja sama BUMI, seharusnya di
tahun 2012 BUMI akan dapat memproduksi 110 mio MT. Soal US$/IDR, ada
kecenderungan menguat tapi kemungkinan tidak sampai 5,000, at least
sepertinya tidak dalam 3-4 tahun ini (sangat tergantung kebijakan ekonomi
kabinet baru nanti, terutama terkait UU Mineral & SDA, UU Pasar Modal, dan
berbagai UU terkait industri perdagangan serta kebijakan fiskal pemerintah
baru nanti). *
**
**
*T.o.m*

On Mon, May 18, 2009 at 6:39 AM, tahuslawi <tahusl...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>
>
> Yang masih ada kemungkinan untuk bervariasi dalam range yang lebar :
> 1. Nilai kurs Dollar Amerika : Elaine bilang welcome USD/IDR 5000. Ini
> bukan guyon lho, it might happen. Tapi kalo ini terjadi, kemungkinan harga
> komoditinya sendiri shoot up in terms of USD. Jadi mungkin sama aja dalam
> rupiahnya.
> 2. Production Volume : apakah BUMI bisa menggenjot production volume dari
> 60jt ton ke 100jt ton di 2012 ?
> 3. Corporate action Bakrie Group : ini yang paling sulit ditebak. Kayak
> Bajaj aja, hanya Tuhan dan supirnya sendiri yang tau dia mau kemana.
>
> Tapi kalo everything goes as smooth as calculated below .. welcome BUMI
> 17000 ...
>
> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>,
> Tom DS <tom.ds.st...@...> wrote:
> >
> > *Dear Mbah, Pak JT, Pak Oentoeng, Elaine (if you're still here
> somewhere),
>
> > Pak DE, Indeksbei3000, & all OB seniors and members...*
> > * *
> > * *
> > *Pak JT had shared his view on BUMI from technical analysis perception,
> so I
> > just want to continue Pak JT's analysis with fundamental reason.*
> > *Pls see below on our brief analysis on BUMI for the next 4 years (since
> we
> > got the clue from management only up to 2012). For fundamentalist, pls
> > review and feel free to comment, but please don't provide me with sucks
> > analysis such Citi had with Price Target of Rp580/share, hahaha....
> > (kidding)*
> > *Disclaimer On.*
> > * *
> > * *
> > *T.o.m*
> >
> > * * *(In million US$)* *2012 (f)* *2011 (f)* *2010 (f)* *2009 (e)* *2008*
> > *2007* *2006* *2005* *2004* *Total Assets* * $ 11,116.89 * * $ 8,068.47
> > * * $ 6,942.57 * * $ 6,329.92 * * $ 5,319.90 * * $ 2,819.40 * *
> > $ 2,513.50 * * $ 1,705.20 * * $ 1,389.50 * *Total Liabilities* * $
> > 1,165.22 * * $ 1,430.97 * * $ 2,721.75 * * $ 3,697.50 * * $
> > 3,743.00
> > * * $ 1,697.50 * * $ 2,153.60 * * $ 1,472.10 * * $
> > 1,282.90 * *Total
> > Equity* * $ 9,951.66 * * $ 6,637.49 * * $ 4,220.82 * * $ 2,632.42
> > * * $ 1,576.90 * * $ 1,122.00 * * $ 359.90 * * $ 233.10 *
> > * $ 106.60 * *Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity* * $ 11,116.89
> > * * $ 8,068.47 * * $ 6,942.57 * * $ 6,329.92 * * $ 5,319.90 * *
> > $ 2,819.40 * * $ 2,513.50 * * $ 1,705.20 * * $ 1,389.50 * * * *
> > * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Total Revenue* * $ 9,648.91 * *
> > $ 7,177.01
> > * * $ 4,992.70 * * $ 3,661.94 * * $ 3,378.40 * * $ 2,265.50 * *
> > $ 1,851.60 * * $ 1,734.30 * * $ 954.00 * *Gross Profit* *
> > $ 5,918.93
> > * * $ 4,344.18 * * $ 2,918.32 * * $ 2,010.86 * * $ 1,612.80 * *
> > $ 755.30 * * $ 529.40 * * $ 437.60 * * $
> > 355.90 * *Operating
> > Expense* * $ 1,484.27 * * $ 1,117.00 * * $ 792.26 * * $
> > 593.45
> > * * $ 549.00 * * $ 380.00 * * $ 232.30 * * $ 210.80
> > * * $ 138.80 * *Operating Income* * $ 4,434.66 * * $ 3,227.18 *
> > * $ 2,126.06 * * $ 1,417.41 * * $ 1,063.70 * * $ 375.30
> > * * $
> > 297.00 * * $ 226.80 * * $ 217.10 * *Net Income Before Taxes* * $
> > 4,371.85 * * $ 3,170.08 * * $ 2,074.15 * * $ 1,370.22 * * $
> > 1,032.70
> > * * $ 854.90 * * $ 224.90 * * $ 178.00 * * $ 172.10
> > * *Provision for Income Taxes* * $ 381.01 * * $ 276.27 * * $
> > 180.76 * * $ 119.41 * * $ 90.00 * * $ 14.60 * *
> > $
> > 2.50 * * $ 55.80 * * $ 63.10 * *Net Income After Taxes* * $
> > 3,990.85 * * $ 2,893.81 * * $ 1,893.39 * * $ 1,250.81 * * $
> > 942.70
> > * * $ 840.30 * * $ 222.40 * * $ 122.20 * * $ 109.00
> > * *Net Income Less Minority Interest* * $ 3,314.17 * * $ 2,416.67 * *
> > $ 1,588.40 * * $ 1,055.52 * * $ 645.40 * * $ 789.00
> > * * $
> > 222.30 * * $ 122.10 * * $ 108.80 * *Basic Weighted Average
> > Shares* *19,404.00* *19,404.00* *19,404.00* *19,404.00* *19,193.38* *
> > 18,320.83* *19,404.00* *19,404.00* *19,404.00* *Basic EPS Including
> > Extraordinary Items* * $ 0.171 * * $ 0.125 * * $ 0.082
> > * * $ 0.054 * * $ 0.034 * * $ 0.043 * * $ 0.011
> > * * $ 0.006 * * $ 0.006 *
> > **
> > * * *Financial Modelling Assumption* *2012 (f)* *2011 (f)* *2010 (f)*
> *2009
> > (e)* *2008* *Exchange Rate* *Rp10,000 * *Rp10,000 * *Rp10,000 * *Rp10,500
> *
> > *Rp10,990 * *% Increase in Production* *32%* *25%* *15%* *10%* *2%*
> *Production
> > (million MT)* *110.21* *83.49* *66.79* *58.08* *52.80* *Sales (million
> MT)*
> > *106.90* *83.49* *66.79* *56.34* *46.06* *ASP (US$/MT)* *$90.26 * *$85.96
> *
> > *$74.75 * *$65.00 * *$73.34 * *Cash Cost (US$/MT)* *$33.51 * *$33.59 *
> *$30.75
> > * *$28.14 * *$33.11 * *Dividend Payout Ratio* *15%* *15%* *15%* *15%*
> *15%*
> > *Dividend/Share (Rp/share)* *Rp256.20 * *Rp186.82 * *Rp122.79 *
> > *Rp85.68 * *Rp56.04
> > * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Macroeconomic Assumption* * * * * * * * * * *
> *1yr
> > avg oil price assumption (US$/bbl)* *$76.00 * *$72.00 * *$63.00 * *$55.00
> *
> > *$99.57 * *Indonesian economic growth* *6.0%* *5.5%* *4.5%* *4.0%* *6.1%*
> > **
> > * * *Valuation* *2012 (f)* *2011 (f)* *2010 (f)* *2009 (e)* *2008* *EPS
> > (IDR$/share)* * Rp 1,708 * * Rp 1,245 * * Rp 819 *
> > * Rp
> > 571 * * Rp 374 * *BVPS ((IDR$/share)* * Rp 5,129 * * Rp
> > 3,421
> > * * Rp 2,175 * * Rp 1,424 * * Rp 903 * *PBV in its
> > industry* *7.4* *7.0* *6.7* *6.4* *5.8* *PBV in S&P 500* *4.8* *4.3*
> *3.6* *
> > 3.0* *3.0* *PBV -highest* *5.0* *4.5* *4.0* *3.0* *1.0* *PBV -moderate*
> *3.8
> > * *3.5* *3.0* *1.8* *1.0* *Price/Share -highest est. (Rp/Share)* * Rp
> > 25,643
> > * * Rp 15,393 * * Rp 8,701 * * Rp 4,273 * * Rp
> > 903 * *Price/Share
> > -moderate est. (Rp/Share)* * Rp 19,489 * * Rp 11,972 * * Rp 6,526
> > * * Rp 2,564 * * Rp 903 * *ROA* *30%* *30%* *23%* *17%* *12%* *
> > ROE* *33%* *36%* *38%* *40%* *41%* *PER* *11.4* *9.6* *8.0* *4.5* *2.4*
> > *Note: We only show brief analysis to maintain confidentiality on some
> > modelling assumption and macroeconomic assumption due to proprietary
> rights.
> > *
> >
> > **
> > >
> > >
> > > On 5/17/09, JsxTrader <jsxtra...@...> wrote:
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Kayaknya bukan Pak.., tapi memang signalnya reversal.., namun belum
> > >> confirm…, dan bisa juga signal tsb merupakan signal continuation
> karena body
> > >> candle mengecil (relative to tail) yg mengindikasikan kekuatan bull
> and bear
> > >> relative seimbang pada perdagangan satu minggu kemarin…, well, butuh
> satu
> > >> candle lagi (which is one week) untuk bisa mendapatkan konfirmasi
> apakah
> > >> lanjut atau reversal…, so fasten your seatbelt… J
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> JT
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> [image: bumi zoom.png]
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> *From:* 
> > >> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>[mailto:
> > >> obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>]
> *On Behalf Of *HOTMONEY
> > >> *Sent:* 17 Mei 2009 23:12
> > >> *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com<obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com>
> > >> *Subject:* Re: [ob] BUMI - My View
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Bukannya itu bearish harami ya Om JT?
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>  
>

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