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JPMorgan Upgrades Russia, Indonesia; Downgrades China (Update1)
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By Chen Shiyin
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Russian and Indonesian stocks were
upgraded at JPMorgan Chase & Co. as a recovery in the global
economy and investors’ risk appetites drives further gains in emerging market
equities. The brokerage downgraded China.
Russia was raised to “neutral” while Indonesia was
upgraded to “overweight” within JPMorgan’s global emerging-
market portfolio, analysts led by Adrian Mowat said. They cut
China to “neutral” after its gains this year and lowered South
Africa and Malaysia to “underweight.”
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped 0.8 percent to
702.24 today, after a 24 percent rally this year. Developing
countries make up all 10 of the best-performing markets this
year, with Peru, Russia and China leading gains.
“These asset allocation changes are in the context of a
MSCI Emerging Market 900 index target,” the strategists said.
“We expect all emerging markets to generate positive returns.”
Mowat, JPMorgan’s Hong Kong-based chief Asia and emerging-
market strategist, and his team said last month the MSCI index
for developing countries will rise to 900. That would be the
highest level since Sept. 8, a week before New York-based Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy froze global credit markets
and sparked an exodus from emerging-market assets.
Russia, Indonesia
Russian stocks, previously rated “underweight” at
JPMorgan, are benefiting from the government’s growth policies,
a contracting risk premium and the increasing likelihood of
earnings upgrades by analysts, the brokerage said in the note.
The RTS Index has jumped 48 percent this year, the second-
best performer among the 92 global stock indexes tracked by
Bloomberg. The ruble-denominated Micex Index has surged 62
percent in 2009.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index has climbed 29 percent
during the same period. The market was upgraded from “neutral”
because of the improving commodities and currency outlook,
JPMorgan wrote.
Gross domestic product expanded 4.4 percent in the three
months to March 31 from a year earlier as local spending
accelerated, the statistics bureau said on May 15. That’s the
fastest pace in Southeast Asia.
Still, JPMorgan has turned less optimistic about on China,
lowering its rating on the market from “overweight.” The MSCI
China Index has gained 21 percent and this month touched the
highest level since September, just before Lehman’s bankruptcy.
The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks mainland-listed
shares, has gained 45 percent, the world’s third-largest advance.
Reallocating Capital
“As China discounts its economic recovery, we are
reallocating capital to other North Asian economies that are
later in the recovery phase,” the JPMorgan analysts wrote.
The brokerage is also downgrading stocks in South Africa
and Malaysia from a previous recommendation of “neutral,”
citing the “low beta” in the two markets.
JPMorgan is joined by Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius and HSBC
Private Bank in predicting a rebound in
emerging market shares.
“I would buy all emerging markets going forward,” Arjuna
Mahendran, Singapore-based chief investment strategist for Asia
at HSBC Private Bank, which oversees $494 billion in assets,
said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “The world has
turned on its head and the emerging markets are looking
decidedly more sound than the developed markets.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at
sche...@bloomberg.net Last Updated: May 17, 2009 22:15 EDT
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