Kok nggak sebut-sebut ekonomi gaya JK, Mbah? Sudah yakin gak bakal kepilih?

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From: "jsx_consultant" <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id>

Date: Sun, 24 May 2009 13:49:56 
To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [ob] Pengaruh KEBIJAKAN ekonomi dan index


Pengaruh KEBIJAKAN ekonomi dan index


Index India naik 17% sehari ketika partai Congress yg condong
pada OPEN/FREE MARKET ECONOMY menang pemilu pada tgl 18 Mei
lalu.

Bagaimana dengan Ekonomi gaya pak Budiono Vs Ekonomi Kerakyatan
Megapro ?.

Kita liat aja hasilnya bulan depan....


India's Stock Surge Shows Investors See Open Economy (Update2) 


By Cherian Thomas, Kartik Goyal and Shobhana Chandra

May 19 (Bloomberg) -- India's record stock-market surge yesterday after the 
election triumph of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress Party is a sign of 
just how much investors want the next government to open Asia's third-biggest 
economy. 

Expectations are soaring as Singh, 76, starts his second term without the need 
for support from the communist allies who choked his market-opening efforts 
from 2004. Investors are betting the Oxford-trained economist will remove the 
last barriers to foreign investments in financial services and re- start asset 
sales to help trim a widening budget deficit. 

"There's a real sense of urgency in taking this event and translating it into 
tangible results," said Nick Chamie, global head of emerging-markets research 
at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "If we don't see some positive signs on an 
improving fiscal deficit in relatively short order, we could end up again with 
a weaker equity market, a weaker rupee and reduced confidence in the 
government's ability." 

The benchmark Sensitive Index, or Sensex, extended its rally today, rising 2.4 
percent to 14627.37 at 2:10 p.m. local time after soaring 17 percent yesterday. 
The rupee climbed 0.9 percent against the dollar to 47.48 in Mumbai. 

Indian bonds fell, paring yesterday's gains, after the government said it will 
sell additional debt this month. The benchmark bond yield rose 9 basis points 
to 6.40 percent. 

Mukherjee, Nath 

Pranab Mukherjee, 73, may continue as India's finance minister in the incoming 
government, said a senior Congress party official today on condition of 
anonymity. Mukherjee took over the finance portfolio in November after 
Palaniappan Chidambaram was moved to the home ministry to strengthen national 
security following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. 

Other potential candidates for the position include Commerce Minister Kamal 
Nath, 62, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, 
65, and former central bank governor Chakravarthy Rangarajan, the Economic 
Times reported yesterday. 

Mamata Banerjee, leader of the All India Trinamool Congress, a key ally of 
Singh's Congress party, may seek to become the railway minister, said Partha 
Chatterjee, a Trinamool member. 

Congress and its allies won 261 of the 543 elected lower- house seats, with the 
party getting 206 lawmakers of its own, the most since 1991, when Singh as 
finance minister abandoned Soviet-style state planning and introduced 
free-market policies that have helped India's economy quadruple in size. 

Six-Month `Honeymoon' 

The immediate interest among investors is the fiscal stimulus the government 
can provide to revive an economy growing at its weakest pace since 2003. The 
finance minister may unveil this year's budget by July. Singh's government said 
before the elections that the economy needs stimulus of at least another 1 
percent of gross domestic product. 

"They'll have a honeymoon of six to eight months," said John Praveen, chief 
investment strategist at Pramerica International Investments Advisers, a unit 
of Prudential Financial Inc. in Newark, New Jersey. "As long as they're 
delivering on some of the expectations, the markets will hold the gains. They 
have to make the right start." 

The Reserve Bank of India estimates the fiscal and monetary steps announced so 
far are worth more than $85 billion, or almost 7 percent of GDP. 

The tax cuts and increased spending since December widened the federal budget 
deficit to 6 percent of GDP in the year ended March 31, from a target of 2.5 
percent. 

Window of Opportunity 

The prospect of an increased budget shortfall prompted Standard & Poor's to say 
in February that India's spending plans were "not sustainable" and the nation's 
credit rating may be cut to junk if finances worsen. S&P has a BBB- long term 
credit rating on India, the lowest investment-grade level. 

S&P and Moody's Investors Service, which places India two steps below 
investment grade, yesterday indicated the South Asian nation has a chance to 
improve its fiscal situation after the resounding election victory. 

The poll result gives the government more "political space" to sell stakes in 
state-run companies and improve revenue, Moody's senior analyst Aninda Mitra 
told Bloomberg News. 

S&P's director of sovereign ratings Takahira Ogawa said "there is a possibility 
for the government to implement various measures to reform for further 
expansion of the economy and for the fiscal consolidation." 

Communist Impact 

Singh had to depend on the communist parties to gain a majority in parliament 
in his first term. The communists were opposed to his plans to raise funds by 
selling stakes in National Hydroelectric Power Corp., Oil India Ltd., Bharat 
Heavy Electricals Ltd. and National Aluminium Co. 

"Among the key reforms will be disinvestment now - the new government will 
focus on fiscal responsibility," said Rajeev Malik, a regional economist at 
Macquarie Group Ltd. in Singapore. "The key issue will be for the government to 
balance the need for additional fiscal stimulus with a credible plan for fiscal 
consolidation." 

Communists also stalled a bill to raise the foreign- investment ceiling for 
Prudential Plc and other insurers to 49 percent from 26 percent, and resisted 
legislation aimed at removing a 10 percent cap on the voting rights of foreign 
investors in non-state banks. They also blocked entry of global retailers such 
as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. into India. 

"Now the Congress party can rule with a minimum number of coalition partners 
and with a mandate for reform," said Rory Medcalf, an India specialist at the 
Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney. "This is exceptionally good 
news for India." 

-- With assistance from Bibhudatta Pradhan in New Delhi and Debarati Roy in 
Mumbai. Editors: Michael Dwyer, Daniel Moss 

To contact the reporter on this story: Cherian Thomas in New Delhi at 
cthom...@bloomberg.net. 

Last Updated: May 19, 2009 05:12 EDT 



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