Menurut saya. Riset dengan price target 7000 merupakan yang terbaru dan revisi dari dokumen sebelumnya , sedangkan PT 9600 adalah kesalahan . Perhatikan timestamp kedua dokumen tersebut , dokumen yang anda beri nama pgasold sebenarnya lebih baru dari dokumen pgasnew. Selain itu target TP 7000 sesuai dgn asumsi yang menggunakan average forecast EPS 2007/2008 yaitu 635-640/saham dengan PER 10.7x .
--- Giri <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Ada kesalahan ketik di riset PGASold. Perhatikan di > halaman 1 Price Target 7.000 dan namun di paragraf > terakhir halaman 1, di sana terketik 9.600, juga di > halaman 2 ada perbedaan PT tanggal 12 Januari 2007. > > Riset direvisi ke PGASnew. > > Saya gak punya posisi, hanya kasihan untuk yang > pegang barang. Pasti si Angus dan Simon ditegur > habis2an. > > Seperti Suhu Irwan Ariston N bilang : > > HOLD saja, harga ngga akan kemana2. Kalau masih > punya > amunisi cadangan untuk PGAS, average saja dengan > beli di harga hari ini dengan menggunakan setengah > amunisi yg ada. Setengahnya lagi untuk cadangan > beli lagi kalau harga diturunin lagi. Setelah itu, > ngga usah perhatikan harga PGAS, cuekin saja sampai > harganya nanti naik sendiri. Anggap saja deposito > rupiah. > > jabat erat, > Irwan Ariston Napitupulu. > ~~~~~~ > > TP Chart paling parah 7.000. Kecuali ada pattern > lanjutan. > > > Semoga bermanfaat > > > peace > > > > Giri > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > > > This is the part of broking I hate. Angus has been > forced by news late yesterday to push through a > major downgade to Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ). > One of our favorite stocks over the past two years > is about to fall massively out of favor. We have > been huge fans of PGAS and its strong growth > profile. There is a great long term story here but > that will not matter in the short term. The > company's credibility is shot and there are real > implications about government connivance as well. > Angus has cut volumes by 32% in 2007 and 20% in > 2008, resulting in a 58% cut to 2007 profits and 34% > in 2008. However, there must also be a risk of > further delays. With short term downside the stock > looks like a SELL. > > > Investors understand these guys are a bit flaky. It > is not the delay to operating the gas pipelines that > really worry us. These have been indicated and are > not a major surprise. However, the information we > received late yesterdy is completely different. Not > only is there a further delay but there are problems > with flow rates which will limit volumes in 2007 and > into 2008. > > > > So in the past month, PGAS has found an additional 3 > month delay in delivering gas (from their Jan 1 > target) and they are now starting to disclose that > even when the pipes are ready they will not be able > to receive the full amount of contracted gas. > Apparently, there are problems with differential > pressures that mean PGAS needs to put in more > compressors. That must have been known for some > time. The company is now saying this will not be > rectified until 1Q08 (if then). > > > > I am concerned about the timing of news flow. The > government only recently placed shares to investors > at Rp11,300. At the time news flow remains positive > with gas expected to start flowing in January. In > just a few weeks that has been pushed back to March > and flow rates have been cut dramatically. Did the > government know? The implication is that they did. > Horrible corporate governance. > > > > What should investors do? > > In the short term, the company faces a massive > credibility problem. Although they claim that they > can raise prices in June and again in 2008 this has > yet to be done. They are negotiating for additional > gas but are yet to sign meaningful contracts. They > are promising gas flows in March and problems with > flow rates solved by March 2008 but is this > realistic? > > > > In the absence of credibility, PGAS does not deserve > a DCF valuation. Looking at earnings it is not cheap > in the near term. As these problems are solved, the > valuation will rise sharply but in the meantime the > stock will get punished. Angus has downgraded to a a > SELL. I expect significant short term pressure on > the stock price before a new entry point is seen. > > > > The key to PGAS now is execution. When they actually > deliver gas at contracted rates the stock will start > to re-rate. Long term, this remains a very > attractive growth story, but investors are likely to > give up > > > > > > > > ____________________________________________________________________________________ Cheap talk? Check out Yahoo! Messenger's low PC-to-Phone call rates. http://voice.yahoo.com