Menurut saya.
Riset dengan price target 7000 merupakan yang terbaru
dan revisi dari dokumen sebelumnya , sedangkan PT 9600
adalah kesalahan . Perhatikan timestamp kedua dokumen
tersebut , dokumen yang anda beri nama pgasold
sebenarnya lebih baru dari dokumen pgasnew.
Selain itu target TP 7000 sesuai dgn asumsi yang
menggunakan  average forecast EPS 2007/2008 yaitu
635-640/saham dengan PER 10.7x .

--- Giri <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Ada kesalahan ketik di riset PGASold. Perhatikan di
> halaman 1 Price Target 7.000 dan namun di paragraf
> terakhir halaman 1, di sana terketik 9.600, juga di
> halaman 2 ada perbedaan PT tanggal 12 Januari 2007.
> 
> Riset direvisi ke PGASnew.
> 
> Saya gak punya posisi, hanya kasihan untuk yang
> pegang barang. Pasti si Angus dan Simon ditegur
> habis2an. 
> 
> Seperti Suhu Irwan Ariston N bilang :
> 
> HOLD saja, harga ngga akan kemana2. Kalau masih
> punya
> amunisi cadangan untuk PGAS, average saja dengan
> beli di harga hari ini dengan menggunakan setengah
> amunisi yg ada. Setengahnya lagi untuk cadangan 
> beli lagi kalau harga diturunin lagi. Setelah itu,
> ngga usah perhatikan harga PGAS, cuekin saja sampai
> harganya nanti naik sendiri. Anggap saja deposito
> rupiah.
> 
> jabat erat,
> Irwan Ariston Napitupulu. 
> ~~~~~~
> 
> TP Chart paling parah 7.000. Kecuali ada pattern
> lanjutan.
> 
> 
> Semoga bermanfaat
> 
> 
> peace
> 
> 
> 
> Giri
> 
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is the part of broking I hate. Angus has been
> forced by news late yesterday to push through a
> major downgade to Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ).
> One of our favorite stocks over the past two years
> is about to fall massively out of favor.  We have
> been huge fans of PGAS and its strong growth
> profile. There is a great long term story here but
> that will not matter in the short term. The
> company's credibility is shot and there are real
> implications about government connivance as well.
> Angus has cut volumes by 32% in 2007 and 20% in
> 2008, resulting in a 58% cut to 2007 profits and 34%
> in 2008. However, there must also be a risk of
> further delays. With short term downside the stock
> looks like a SELL.
>  
> 
> Investors understand these guys are a bit flaky. It
> is not the delay to operating the gas pipelines that
> really worry us. These have been indicated and are
> not a major surprise. However, the information we
> received late yesterdy is completely different.  Not
> only is there a further delay but there are problems
> with flow rates which will limit volumes in 2007 and
> into 2008.
> 
>  
> 
> So in the past month, PGAS has found an additional 3
> month delay in delivering gas (from their Jan 1
> target) and they are now starting to disclose that
> even when the pipes are ready they will not be able
> to receive the full amount of contracted gas.
> Apparently, there are problems with differential
> pressures that mean PGAS needs to put in more
> compressors. That must have been known for some
> time. The company is now saying this will not be
> rectified until 1Q08 (if then).
> 
>  
> 
> I am concerned about the timing of news flow. The
> government only recently placed shares to investors
> at Rp11,300. At the time news flow remains positive
> with gas expected to start flowing in January. In
> just a few weeks that has been pushed back to March
> and flow rates have been cut dramatically. Did the
> government know? The implication is that they did.
> Horrible corporate governance.
> 
>  
> 
> What should investors do?
> 
> In the short term, the company faces a massive
> credibility problem. Although they claim that they
> can raise prices  in June and again in 2008 this has
> yet to be done. They are negotiating for additional
> gas but are yet to sign meaningful contracts. They
> are promising gas flows in March and problems with
> flow rates solved by March 2008 but is this
> realistic?
> 
>  
> 
> In the absence of credibility, PGAS does not deserve
> a DCF valuation. Looking at earnings it is not cheap
> in the near term. As these problems are solved, the
> valuation will rise sharply but in the meantime the
> stock will get punished. Angus has downgraded to a a
> SELL.  I expect significant short term pressure on
> the stock price before a new entry point is seen.
> 
>  
> 
> The key to PGAS now is execution. When they actually
> deliver gas at contracted rates the stock will start
> to re-rate. Long term, this remains a very
> attractive growth story, but investors are likely to
> give up 
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
>   
> 
> 



 
____________________________________________________________________________________
Cheap talk?
Check out Yahoo! Messenger's low PC-to-Phone call rates.
http://voice.yahoo.com

Kirim email ke