Hehehe, kegocek ya..??


Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan..






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From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
On Behalf Of Ruz7
Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh



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From: Kurniadi Oen 
Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700
Subject: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT
to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment]

-bussyeeet deh pgas target price  satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana
udah dijualin murah2

Subject: FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh


* Model revisited: We revisit our model and incorporate the following new

assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to

750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas

selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate

gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to

Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102.

* Gas supply is likely to be adequate: One concern among investors is that

PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view

that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form

of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban

phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS

failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving

terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace

supply from Suban.

* Ability to cover rising gas cost: One could argue that the cost of gas

rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at

international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by

CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe

PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our

channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will

able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG &

diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel

despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas.

* Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: We continue to be bullish on

PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we

have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to

Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth

rate = 7.0%) Risks to our view and PT: (1) Lower than expected

distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher

than expected cost of gas.


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