Hehehe, kegocek ya..??
Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan.. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI BerbullishT _____ From: email@example.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ruz7 Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM To: firstname.lastname@example.org Subject: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curaaaangggggg.... Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000R _____ From: Kurniadi Oen Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 Subject: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 Subject: FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh * Model revisited: We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. * Gas supply is likely to be adequate: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. * Ability to cover rising gas cost: One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG & diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. * Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) Risks to our view and PT: (1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.