FYI....
PRESS RELEASE: Fitch Revises Indonesia BB- Rtg Outlook To Pos
The following is a press release from Fitch Ratings:
¶ Fitch Ratings-Jakarta/Hong Kong/Singapore-29 January 2007: Fitch Ratings
has today revised the Outlook on the foreign and local currency Issuer Default
ratings ("IDRs") of the Republic of Indonesia to Positive from Stable, while
affirming both ratings at 'BB-' (BB minus). At the same time, the agency has
also affirmed Indonesia's Short-term IDR at 'B' and the Country Ceiling at
'BB'.
¶ "The revision to the Outlook on Indonesia's sovereign ratings reflects the
authorities' commitment to maintaining economic stability and fiscal
discipline, as well as the government's stronger top-down policy intent to
implement a structural reform agenda aimed at improving the investment
climate," says Ai Ling Ngiam, Director in Fitch's Sovereign Ratings team in
Singapore. The government's efforts to tackle key investor concerns on
corruption, bureaucratic and regulatory hindrances particularly in the areas of
taxation and customs may slowly be paying off. A culture of fear of openly
engaging in corruption has emerged amid anti-corruption investigations leading
to several high profile prosecutions, asset recoveries and rising complaints
via the whistle-blower programme. Meanwhile the government's electronic open
tender procurement system has improved transparency. Indonesia has also
improved its ranking in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness
Index, moving
up to 50 in 2006 from 69 in 2005.
¶ Public finances and improving surveillance of broader fiscal risks are
Indonesia's fundamental rating strengths. Fitch forecasts the fiscal deficit
will stay manageable at 1.1% of GDP this year, while the government debt-to-GDP
ratio should drop to around 38% this year, levels last seen only in 1997 and
better than the 41% median for the 'BB' rating category. Nonetheless, the
debt-to-revenue ratio of 212% in 2006 is less favourable than the 'BB' median
of 162% and further tax efforts are needed to increase revenue. Domestic debt
re-profiling efforts have successfully reduced the bunching risks of domestic
debt repayments in 2007-2009 by switching these bonds into long-dated bonds
maturing in 2010 and 2025.
¶ On the external front, a strong build-up in the forex reserves position
thanks to commodity price increases, larger-than-expected import compression by
manufacturers and robust portfolio inflows has provided a more comfortable
cushion to deal with systemic shocks. Indonesia's gross financing requirement
including short-term debt is expected to drop to around 66% of official
reserves, in line with the 'BB' median. Nonetheless, Indonesia's external
balance sheet risks remain, as an up-tick in emerging market risk aversion
could lead to a disruptive outflow of portfolio equity or debt investment,
while a larger resident accumulation of private external assets may also weigh
on the balance of payments. Furthermore, on the current account front, a higher
consumer and manufacturers' import bill attributable to the recovery in real
GDP growth to approximately 5.9% this year from 5.6% in 2006 pose dollar demand
pressures.
¶ Trade facilitation through the creation of Special Economic Zones, the push
for an Economic Partnership Agreement with top export destination Japan and the
implementation of National Single Window scheme for traders by 2008 is vital to
raise Indonesia's current external receipts ("CXR"). Indonesia's gross external
debt, external debt service and interest service ratios are weak compared to
'BB' peer medians. Looking ahead, Fitch says the resilience of the external
position will require accelerated efforts to build sustainable capital inflows
in the form of foreign direct investment ("FDI"), as a preferred alternative to
possibly volatile portfolio flows. Indonesia's export competitiveness will also
need to be addressed in the near term with greater urgency to improve
Indonesia's credit risk profile.
boyz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: sekedar menambahkan,
The objective in the market was not to be always right, (because, no body can
always predict right, ...ever)
but to make big money when you were right.
and always cut short the loss when you were wrong.
salam,
Widhie !!! wrote: "Early in my studies, I had a friend who used more than 100
indicators
to analyze the stock market. At first, I envied his superior knowledge,
but eventually I came to feel sorry for him: He was always
confused. I finally figured out that he simply had too much information.
At any given time, only one or two points were vital, and the rest just
served to divert his attention to unimportant and contradictory data. He
had never learned that the secret to a clear and accurate picture of the
market is finding the few truly important pieces of information and
downplaying or discarding everything else."
- Michael McDonald in "Predict market swings with technical analysis"
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