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--- On Mon, 6/15/09, swan silo <swan_gro...@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: swan silo <swan_gro...@yahoo.com>
Subject: [ob] asri dari DANAREKSA TP RP 210
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, my_...@yahoogroups.com,
sa...@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, June 15, 2009, 1:55 PM
From: Danareksa Equity Research
Sent: Monday, June 15, 2009 11:31 AM
Subject: Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ, Rp127 BUY) Unlocking value
Alam Sutera Realty
Unlocking value
TP raised to Rp210
Our new TP is at a 30% discount to the NAV, reflecting poor share liquidity and
potentially limited landbank. Our TP implies 2.0-1.8x PBV. In calculating the
NAV, we make a number of assumptions. Firstly, the economic outlook is seen to
be brighter as interest rates have now declined to an all time low. Secondly,
the company’s property values are almost certain to rise as direct toll road
access becomes a reality. And thirdly, a Rp1.6trn project is expected to make
the company net cash by 2011. Note that our NAV-derived TP does not include
other projects in the pipeline - such as the Binus apartments - but if it did
then our TP would increase a further 2%. Earnings wise, we have lowered our
FY09-10E EPS estimates by 36-14% to account for delays. Even so, the outlook
for profits looks rosy since margins should expand from a greater focus on the
selling of high yielding assets. With 57% upside potential from the current
share price we believe the stock
offers an interesting play in Indonesia ’s burgeoning property sector. M&A
could come next, we believe. BUY recommendation maintained.
Unlocking value
The sale of some 100 ha of land ( gross area, already developed and worth
around Rp1.6trn) will keep ASRI cash rich, in our view. According to the
management it will take around 3 years to sell the land. Interestingly, the
land is valued at only Rp2.7mn/sqm, or a chunky 10% discount to its adjacent
development, BSD. In our estimate, we believe the project should be worth
around Rp2.8trn. This reflects: 1) the soon-to-be-given direct toll road access
to the complex (which should give a boost to land values), 2) the fact that the
company can sell its assets at its own convenience and with a focus on
realizing the maximum potential asset value and 3) the expectation that the
price discount will narrow. As a result of the land sales, margins will be
given a big boost. This is because sales of land typically yield a margin of
around 50% - or much higher than the 25% margin for residential property sales.
Note also that the land was acquired at a very low
price of only around Rp150,000/m2. Besides being used to develop its existing
landbank, the cash received from the land sales will be used to pay down the
company’s Rp733bn debt by 2011. By then we expect ASRI to have net cash of
Rp1.3 trn. M&A could be next to come, we believe.
A town of its own: groundbreaking in Aug 09
The development of its own town shall give an additional spur to demand. This
will include a mall and offices that will cover some 8.4ha of land and add an
expected Rp68bn to yearly recurring income. We don’t expect delays as funding
has already been secured from the IPO. Ground breaking is scheduled for Aug 09,
with completion expected to take around 2 years. A hotel and university will be
built to complete the complex. There are also plans for a theme park, but that
is still some way off – at least 5-6 years before realization. To develop the
whole town within 2 years we estimate it will take around Rp550bn. Financing
shall not be a problem, however, and will come internally (we do not assume any
additional debts to be taken on over the next 3 years). Of the total 14,000sqm
of office area, some 50% is expected to be sold as strata title, generating
around Rp65bn over 3 years.
The second quarter is looking good
In the year up to April 09, marketing sales reached Rp154bn, of which 58% were
sales of commercial shop lots and kiosks - a significant achievement since
their launch in March 09, in our view. Following this success, ASRI has
undertaken a further launch to accommodate the higher expected demand in April
and May 09. In terms of profitability, we expect higher gross margins of 28% in
2Q09 vs. 24% in 2Q08. For the full year, we expect marketing sales to reach
Rp850bn, around 40% of which will be booked as revenues. This amount added to
the contribution coming from last year’s marketing sales should translate into
Rp613bn of revenues for 2009.
Lydia Suwandi
(62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3508
lyd...@danareksa. com
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