Right, Pak - utk ANTM growthnya (i.e.profit + prod) + bottom-line (net
profit) masih Oke punya utk ke depannya...

:) Kalo utk INCO - mungkin harus split dulu, ya...

Regards,

Aria


> Tambahan utk ANTM, Sales dari produksinya, 75% ferronickel, yg 25% dari
> emas, nickel consentrate, bauxite.
>   Kasarnya Jadi kalo dapet 8000 kita bisa seakan2 top up 30% lagi.
>
> EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>   Kalo ANTM 23000 MT Ferronickel, boleh tuh! 21000 terlalu konservatif. Ia
> itu kalo dapet 8000 dari Nickel doank! Belum dari yg lain!!!
>
> Jimmy Gunawan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:   wah, Pak Eka...
> kayaknya maksud dia memang utk ANTM kok...
>
> JG
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: EKA SUWANDANA
> To: saham@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, February 05, 2007 4:17 PM
> Subject: Re: INCO more prefer than ANTM......Re: Balasan: [saham] Re: Buy
> ANTM target Rp 14000,-
>
>
> Ngaco loh! Masa produksi INCO cuma 21000 MT!!!! Coba download lagi ke
> www.jsx.co.id !
>
> ANTM yg segitu!
>
> Investor Bonex wrote:
> Mumpung ada joganya FA nich, jadi sekalian kursus :-).
> Berikut adalah hitung2an saya yg sederhana, dg asumsi nickel di 35K/MT,
> Produksi=21K/yr dan PER8x, ketemu fair valuenya di sekitar 8,100-an. Dg
> asumsi yg sama buat INCO akan ketemu di sekitar 45,000an.
>
> Comment, pls...
>
> #Shares 1,907,691,950
> PER8x
> NP30%
> Target Prod 21,000 MT
>
> Nickel Price 35,000 USD/MT
>
> Sales 735,000,000
> Net Profit 220,500,000
> EPS 0.12
> Target Price 8,322.10
> Upside1%
>
>
>
> EKA SUWANDANA wrote:
> ANTM target minimum 12000 , kemungkinan bisa maximum (subject to nickel
> price dont breach below 30000USD/MT ) 15000-an. Apalagi press release 2006
> terakhir produksi emas melonjak jadi 2,8 Ton, dari 2,2 Ton.
>
> Kalo INCO menang di efisiensi dia pembangkit listrik pakai generator PLTA,
> so cost produksi matte hampir separuhnya ferronickel ANTM. Target minimum
> 47000, kalo nickel bertahan diatas 30000$/MT bisa 70000.
>
> Cek terus nickel di www.lme.co.uk/nickel.asp
>
>
>
>
> redyherinantoalb wrote:
> Bagaimana dengan potensi growth nya diantara keduanya pak? Antm ada
> kenaikan produksi 2Xlipat dengan FENI 3 nya... apakah FENI3 udah
> tercermin di harga sekarang? Apa ada potensi growth volume untuk
> INCO?
>
> Redy
>
> --- In saham@yahoogroups.com, Investor Bonex
> wrote:
>>
>> In my view, INCO lebih prefer di bandingkan dg ANTM. Untuk saat
> ini, ANTM sdh sesuai dg value utk Y2007 (dg asumsi avrg nickel di
> sekitar 35-36 K/MT). INCO masih ada potential upside up to 30%.
>>
>> any comment ?
>>
>>
>>
>> timah bangkabelitung wrote:
>> ANTM adalahan growth stocks, yang setiap tahun
> bertumbuh sales maupun profitnya, bahkan tumbuh luar biasa. Dengan
> P/E yang masih
>> rendah ( PER 07F 5 ) saya rasa ANTM boleh di collect. Untuk
> yang
>> pegang posisi TINS sebaiknya profit taking dulu karena sudah
> mendekati target 07F fundamentalnya ( resikonya lebih besar dari
> pada untungnya, apalagi nanti mendadak harga timah jatuh seperti
> nikel
>> yang membuat INCO turun ) switching ke ANTM yang lebih aman.
>> Up side masih 80 %, investasi yang aman, tidur bisa pulas ngak
> cepat
>> sakit jantung nanti uang kita berbunga 80% setahun. Teman saya
> ada
>> yang masih pegang ANTM di harga Rp 1250 semuanya ANTM tidak ada
> saham yang lain dan sampai sekarang belum jual ,untuk hari tua dan
> untuk anak,katanya tahun ini untungnya bisa double, coba hitung
> untungnya berapa persen pertahun ( beli maret 2004 ).
>>
>> Thanks
>>
>>
>> redyherinantoalb wrote:
>> Nah itu dia yang saya maksud.... masa harga Besi Lebih mahal
> dari
>> Nickel.... tapi kalo dilihat nama pabriknya "FENI" harusnya emang
>> Ferro Nickel.... so kenaikan harga nickel seharusnya tidak memberi
>> pengaruh yang besar ke Antm, karena dia hanya 20% kandungan nickel
>> nya, lain cerita dengan INCO yang 80%..... so, sell antm buy
> INCO???
>>
>> Redy
>> --- In saham@yahoogroups.com, "Ryan Ariadi Suwarno" wrote:
>> >
>> > saya pernah ngobrol dengan Bp. Eko Endriawan, beliaw kerja di PT
>> Antam di bag investor relations.
>> > kandungan nickel dalam ferronickel adalah sekitar 20%, sisanya
> 80%
>> adalah besi
>> >
>> > jadi yang dimaksud dengan nickel dalam sales
> volume "ferronickel"
>> ANTM adalah langsung nickel content-nya. jadi untuk perhitungan
>> harga jual ekspornya bisa langsung menggunakan harga
> internasional.
>> rada-rada tricky memang.... jadi orang banyak yg salah persepsi
>> >
>> > beda dengan "nickel in matte"nya INCO yang memiliki kandngan
>> nickel kurang lebih 80% dalam nickel in matte. otomatis kalo itung
>> harga "nickel in matte" milik INCO dalam lapkeu = 80% x harga
>> nickel LME.
>> >
>> > saya cc email ini juga kepada Bp Eko Endriawan, semoga membantu..
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: redyherinantoalb
>> > To: saham@yahoogroups.com
>> > Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 1:15 PM
>> > Subject: [saham] Re: Buy ANTM target Rp 14000,-
>> >
>> >
>> > Ada sedikit pertanyaan pak Eka... output Antm itu berupa Ferro
>> > Nickel atau Nickel Matte? Setahu saya kalo Ferro Nickel kadar
>> nickel
>> > nya rendah lho... jadi Antm beli Nockel Matte dari INCO untuk
>> > diturunkan kadarnya menjadi Ferro Nickel? Mohon informasinya,
>> saya
>> > betul2 bingung masalah ini...
>> > Thank you,
>> > Redy
>> > --- In saham@yahoogroups.com, EKA SUWANDANA wrote:
>> > >
>> > > Biasa, kalo udah hilang barang begitu!!! Kalo nggak target
>> harga
>> > diturunin, harga nickel ditakut2in turun. Awal Tahun 2006 lalu
>> > ketika harga nickel jatuh dari 8$/lb ke 6$/lb, semua sekuritas
>> dalam
>> > risetnya pake rata2 5$/lb atau 4$/lb, ehh malah naik terus.
>> Nickel
>> > price, only God knows where to go?
>> > >
>> > > By the way, Rp14000 target mah sangat possible asal Nickel
>> nggak
>> > turun dibawah 30000$/MT. Ibu Daisy risetnya di ML sekarang
>> ikut2an
>> > setuju bakal 15000-16000. Ah saya sih 11000-12000 udah seneng
>> tuh!
>> > >
>> > > Saya yakin sekarang para MI sudah dapet bocoran laporan 2006
>> > yg 'bocor' semenjak 2 hari lalu. profit Rp 1.5T? EPS? Asumsi
>> 2007
>> > kalo gini sih bisa 2,6T??? Common guys kenapa hari ini turun????
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > James Arifin wrote:
>> > > so strange, even Ferry Wong recommend "HOLD" while he forecast
>> > the stock price will drop to 7500 in 12 months period.
>> STRANGE ...
>> > STRANGE
>> > >
>> > > On 1/25/07, nicholas alvin
>> > wrote:
>> > > Antam's Nickel Output May Rise to 22,000 Tons in 2007
>> (Update2)
>> > > By Claire Leow and Leony Aurora
>> > > Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) --PT Aneka Tambang, Indonesia's second-
>> > largest nickel miner, said it may increase output of the metal
>> by as
>> > much as 52 percent this year as with a new smelter contributing
>> full-
>> > year production.
>> > > Antam, as the company is known, may produce between 20,000
>> > metric tons and 22,000 tons, a record, compared with estimated
>> > output of 14,474 tons in 2006, it said today in a statement.
>> > > The miner, which is 65 percent state-owned, is boosting
>> > production to take advantage of surging demand and record
>> prices.
>> > Nickel stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange plunged
>> 81
>> > percent last year, and a further 25 percent this year as more of
>> the
>> > metal was used in buildings, bridges and ships.
>> > > ``I am not sure about their production run,'' said Ferry Wong,
>> > an analyst with BNP Paribas Peregrine, who expects 21,000 tons
>> this
>> > year at best. ``They missed the target last year.''
>> > > Antam shares, which have gained 71 percent in the past six
>> > months, were unchanged at 8,050 rupiah at 11:42 a.m. Jakarta
>> time.
>> > Wong recommends investors hold the stock, which he forecasts
>> will
>> > drop to 7,500 rupiah in 12 months.
>> > > On Jan. 22, Jakarta-based Antam said it was aiming for output
>> of
>> > as much as 22,000 tons in 2008, when the new smelter would be
>> > running at full capacity.
>> > > Reduced Capacity
>> > > The company didn't give a 2007 output forecast in that
>> > statement, saying the smelter in question has been running at 36
>> > megawatts since mid-November, compared with a full load of 42
>> > megawatts. Antam also plans to overhaul its oldest smelter this
>> > year, which will disrupt production for at least six weeks.
>> > > Three-month nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange have
>> > more than doubled in the past year, touching a record yesterday
>> of
>> > $38,502 a metric ton, before settling at $37,450.
>> > > ``I prefer PT Inco as a pure nickel play,'' Wong said,
>> referring
>> > to PT International Nickel Indonesia, the country's largest
>> nickel
>> > maker and a unit of Rio de Janeiro-based Cia. Vale do Rio Doce,
>> the
>> > world's second-largest mining company. PT Inco makes only
>> nickel,
>> > while Antam also makes gold and bauxite.
>> > > International Nickel Indonesia shares have gained 76 percent
>> to
>> > 35,100 rupiah in six months, and Wong has a 12-month stock
>> target of
>> > 38,000 rupiah.
>> > > Unscheduled Shutdown
>> > > Antam's new smelter, its third, started operating last May.
>> > Still, the facility experienced a leak in July, forcing an
>> > unscheduled shutdown, and it is now running at 85 percent of
>> > capacity. The leak forced the company to cut its initial 2006
>> > production forecast of 20,000 tons several times.
>> > > In the fourth quarter to Dec. 31, Antam's nickel output rose
>> 36
>> > percent to 4,551 tons, lifting production for the full year by
>> 97
>> > percent to 14,474 tons, today's statement said.
>> > > The higher prices and production helped Antam more than double
>> > its sales in the fourth quarter to 2.17 trillion rupiah ($239
>> > million) compared with 1.06 trillion rupiah a year earlier. Full-
>> > year sales rose 69 percent to 5.57 trillion rupiah.
>> > > Today's statement didn't give profit figures or forecasts.
>> > > Antam sold 3,673 tons of nickel in the fourth quarter,
>> fetching
>> > an average price of $14.24 a pound, more than double the $5.82 a
>> > pound in the same period a year earlier.
>> > > Costs rose 13 percent to $4.40 a pound in 2006, the company
>> > added.
>> > > In the fourth quarter, Antam's gold output rose 29 percent to
>> > 719 kilograms. It produced 2,873 kilograms of gold for the full
>> > year, beating its target of 2,591 kilograms. Production of
>> silver, a
>> > by-product of gold, dropped 3 percent to 23,876 kilograms for
>> the
>> > full year.
>> > > Also in the fourth quarter, the company produced 393,158 wet
>> > metric tons of bauxite, 9 percent higher on year.
>> > > The miner is accelerating spending on exploration to keep up
>> > with demand, spending 36 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
>> > compared with 19 billion in the year-earlier period.
>> > > To contact the reporters on this story: Claire Leow in Jakarta
>> > at cleow@ ; Leony Aurora in Jakarta at laurora@
>> > > Last Updated: January 25, 2007 00:05 EST
>> > >
>> > > ---------------------------------
>> > > It's here! Your new message!
>> > > Get new email alerts with the free Yahoo! Toolbar.
>> > >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ---------------------------------
>> Kunjungi halaman depan Yahoo! Indonesia yang baru!
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ---------------------------------
>> Bored stiff? Loosen up...
>> Download and play hundreds of games for free on Yahoo! Games.
>>
>
>
>
>
> DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI.
> Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk unsubscribe dari milis saham
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk subscribe ke milis saham
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Check out the all-new Yahoo! Mail beta - Fire up a more powerful email and
> get things done faster.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI.
> Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk unsubscribe dari milis saham
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk subscribe ke milis saham
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>

Kirim email ke