Kamis, 09/07/2009 16:31 WIB SBY: Inflasi Bisa 4%, BI Rate Akhir Tahun 2009 Bisa 6% Luhur Hertanto - detikFinance
Jakarta - Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) memperkirakan laju inflasi pada tahun 2009 ini bisa mencapai 4% karena penurunan harga komoditas dunia yang terjadi akibat krisis ekonomi dunia mulai pertengahan tahun 2008. "Dengan Inflasi yang terjaga, alhamdullilah mudah-mudahan tahun ini kita bisa capai sekitar 4%," ujarnya dalam jumpa pers di Istana Merdeka, Jakarta, Kamis (9/7/2009). Dengan laju inflasi yang bisa menyentuh 4% tersebut, SBY yakin hal tersebut akan mendorong penurunan tingkat suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) hingga akhir 2009. SBY memprediksikan BI Rate pada akhir tahun akan mencapai level 6%. "Harapan kita menuju ke 6 % pada akhir tahun ini," ujarnya. Selain itu nilai tukar rupiah juga relatif stabil. Sehingga dengan 3 faktor ekonomi yang membaik ini, investasi akan bisa tumbuh melalui penanaman modal dari dalam maupun luar negeri. "Dunia masih terus berupaya agar proses pemulihan resesi perekonomian global ini bisa berjalan lebih cepat, harapan kita semua di 2011 sudah terjadi pergerakan kembali pada tingkat perekonomian global," jelasnya. Di tahun 2009, pemerintah menargetkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 4,3% sehingga bisa menjadi 3 besar negara yang pertumbuhan ekonominya masih positif di tengah imbas krisis ekonomi global. "Pertumbuhan ekonomi 4,3% kalau itu bisa kita capai, itu adalah pertumbuhan terbaik dalam arti kontraksi dari thn lalu ke tahun ini dan itu angka terbaik pada tingkat dunia, meski dari growth itu sendiri diperkirakan setelah Tiongkok, India, baru Indonesia," pungkasnya. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "jsx_consultant" <jsx-consult...@...> wrote: > > Indonesia May Be `Superstar' as Yudhoyono Wins Vote (Update1) > Share | Email | Print | A A A > > By Arijit Ghosh and Daniel Ten Kate > > July 9 (Bloomberg) -- President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono swept toward a > second five-year term, receiving a strong mandate from Indonesia's 176 > million voters to take the country's economy to new heights of growth. > > Yudhoyono, better known as `SBY,' won 61 percent of votes in yesterday's > election, according to a sampling of nationwide ballots by the Indonesian > Survey Institute, which correctly predicted previous contests. His share was > 62 percent in a count of almost 19 million votes by the General Election > Commission. > > Leveraging that victory into achieving his goal of growth rates on par with > China and India will hinge on the ability to build roads, ports and power > plants and lure foreign investment. To do so, he'll have to overcome a > bureaucracy where power is decentralized down to the district level across > 17,500 islands. > > "I would say a `definite yes' in maintaining very solid economic growth, a > `maybe yes' to become the 9 percent superstar," said Milan Zavadjil, > Indonesia country head for the International Monetary Fund. "To go to the > China level you need to take care of some issues, like major improvements in > infrastructure, the investment climate and the legal system." > > The Jakarta Composite index, the third-best-performing benchmark in Asia this > year, fell 0.6 percent as of 10:07 a.m. local time. The rupiah rose 0.8 > percent, the most in two weeks. > > Former President Megawati Soekarnoputri, 62, was running second with 26.6 > percent, according to the institute. Vice President Jusuf Kalla, 67, trailed > with about 12 percent. The commission won't provide final results for about > two weeks. > > Infrastructure Spending > > Yudhoyono has pledged to double infrastructure spending to as much as $140 > billion during a second term to achieve annual growth rates of 7 percent. The > president will also need to tame the rupiah, Asia's most volatile currency, > to reduce investment risk. It has both plunged 40 percent and gained 19 > percent within the past 12 months. > > Fixing Indonesia's congested roads, neglected ports and aging power plants > needs to be among Yudhoyono's top priorities, according to nine of 11 chief > executive officers contacted in the past month by Bloomberg News. He also > needs to improve transparency in the legal system and reduce corruption to > attract global investors, the survey found. > > "Infrastructure development remains plagued by outdated or incomplete > regulations that fall far short of attracting private investment," said > Sandiaga Uno, whose private equity firm PT Saratoga Investama Sedaya owns a > stake in Indonesia's second- largest coal mining company. > > Dilapidated Ports > > Indonesia ranked 86th out of 133 economies in terms of infrastructure quality > in the World Economic Forum's 2008 Global Competitive Index. That was lower > than Pakistan, which faces almost daily attacks by terrorists, and Sri Lanka. > > Poor access to markets and suppliers means higher expenses for Bernard Rohi, > a trader in Ende, 1,700 kilometers (1,056 miles) east of Jakarta. Improving > the dilapidated port would cut the cost of transporting ceramic goods by > half, he said. > > "The port can't support economic development in the region," said Rohi, as he > sat in his shop surrounded by stacks of mattresses, crockery and television > sets. > > The rupiah is projected to have the biggest one-year price fluctuation among > Asia's 10 most-traded currencies. Twelve-month implied volatility, a measure > of expected swings used when pricing options contracts, is 21 percent, > compared with 16 percent for the South Korean won. > > "Somebody has to eliminate the foreign-currency risk," said James Castle, > president of business advisory services company CastelAsia, who has lived in > Indonesia for more than three decades. "Until they do, I don't see a real > rapid growth in infrastructure." > > Lagging Behind > > While Indonesia received a record $8.3 billion in foreign direct investment > last year, it lagged behind the $92 billion haul for China and $33 billion in > India. > > During her campaign, Megawati said Yudhoyono's policies favored foreign > investors at the expense of poor farmers. Almost 33 million Indonesians, or > 14.2 percent of the population, live on less than $0.65 per day, down from > 16.7 percent when Yudhoyono was elected in 2004. He had targeted cutting the > poverty rate to 5.5 percent this year. > > After raising fuel prices in 2005 and last year, Yudhoyono bolstered his > popularity by giving 300,000 rupiah ($29) to 18.5 million poor families to > offset the higher living costs. Since December he has cut gasoline and diesel > prices three times. > > The Jakarta Composite index has climbed 54 percent this year, third best in > Asia behind benchmarks in Shanghai and Sri Lanka. The rupiah has strengthened > the most on the continent in that time, gaining 8 percent against the dollar. > The consumer confidence index in June rose to the highest since 2004. > > Challenges Remain > > "The market will be celebrating SBY's election victory," Nicholas Cashmore, > head of Indonesia research at CLSA Asia- Pacific Markets, said in an > interview with Bloomberg Television today. "There are still a number of > challenges out there in the world, which may make it difficult for the rally > to continue, at least in the short run." > > A landslide election victory will strengthen Yudhoyono's hand in dismantling > regulatory hurdles to keep pace with the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, > India and China. His 7 percent growth goal compares with 5.7 percent since > taking office in 2004. > > "Our target is to put another `I' into BRIC," said Emil Salim, a presidential > adviser and former cabinet minister. "Achieving that in five years is > possible." > > To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at > dtenk...@...; To contact the reporter on this story: Arijit Ghosh in Jakarta > at agh...@... > > Last Updated: July 8, 2009 23:12 EDT >
