sorry chart unemploymentnya ketinggalan 2009/7/14 vividtrader <vividtra...@gmail.com>
> Mencoba menjelaskan pendapatnya Elaine : > > 1. *Deflation: *Federal Reserve President of San francisco Janet Yellen > bilang kemungkinan akan deflasi.* ***Perhatikan baik2 sinyal > deflasi/inflasi dari The Fed maupun omongan pejabat2nya > > http://www.financeroll.com/in/fundamentals/133978-pendapat-janet-yellen.html > > 2. *Unemployment (>10%)------> *ya iya deflasi pabrik undercapacity. > Dalam bbrp puluh tahun terakhir unemployment all time highnya di hampir 11% > yang mungkin jadi resisten. (lihat chart terlampir) > 3. *North Korea Crisis*: Ingat insiden *teluk babi* jaman Kennedy > mungkin efeknya sama. Semoga damai2 saja, I'm Peace Lover > 4. *Unfavored Election Result: *Gak ngerti deh aku soal politik, > kemaren incumbent menang banyak yg ngarep IHSG seperti BSE 30 tapi ternyata > biasa2 aja > 5. *Switch to high quality triple AAA bonds except TIPS -----> *aku gak > ngerti blom pernah beli bond > 6. *Avoid gold----------->*gold bagusnya klo lg inflasi... klo musim > deflasi pegang cash (USD)* > * > 7. *IDX (along with global market) can decline down to minus 1000 (in > 2008, IDX dropped -1800pts!!) ----->*turun 1800 poin aja bisa apalagi > cuma 1000 poin. Tapi jujur aja aku gak tau target sampe berapa. Tanya > Elaine > coba gimana ngitungnya! > 8. *focus on US earnings----> *kurang merhatiin > 9. *USD/Renminbi---------> *US deflasi ------->USD menguat---->barang > cina makin murah (in term USD)----->defisit perdagangan makin besar* > * > 10. *Bullish, long term 2012--------> aku setuju pokoknya nanti kita > jadi negara maju. Indonesia tuan rumah World Cup 2022 > * > 11. *Btw, Billy is 17, I'm 7 years older. > * > > *PS: Artikel bagus nih * > http://blog.fxinstructor.com/what-really-killed-the-rally/* > *Ibaratnya gini... klo yg suka trading forex ngerti pasti.. kan ada pair > EUR/USD, USD/JPY dll. Nah ada lagi USD/SP500 (atau DJIA atau apalah yg > sama). Klo deflasi orang beli USD/SP500 yg artinya buy USD sell stock. > dollar naik deh makanya walau katanya amerika krisis . > > > 2009/7/14 Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com> > > >> >> *Ayy I need to go to my dentist, but okay, here it is:** >> * >> *Bearish for short term, Q309 (may be extended to Q4). Deflation, North >> Korea Crisis, Unfavored Election Result (to the market, obviously), and >> unemployment (>10%). * * >> * >> *What to do: Switch to high quality triple AAA bonds, except TIPS. Avoid >> gold. * >> * >> * >> *Worst case scenario: If all issues above happen at the same time, IDX >> (along with global market) can decline down to minus 1000 (in 2008, IDX >> dropped -1800pts!!), focus on US earnings, and USD vs Renminbi. * >> * >> * >> *Bullish, long term 2012, bullish on all sectors because Indonesia will >> be one of the Asian Tigers. I'm still bullish for long term, but I won't let >> anyone take my profit. Bullish for long term doesn't mean we have to hold >> blindly forever. If fundamentals change, then I must change my strategy >> too. There are declines, the difference between me and JT is he's a short >> term investor...lolz.. [?]* >> * >> * >> *You know, the economic power is shifting, from the western+eurozone to >> Asia, and westerns are basically zionist. If they can't win, then everyone >> must lose.* >> * >> * >> *Anyway, thank you Embah for asking. Hope this is clear enough. Btw, >> Billy is 17, I'm 9 years older.* >> * >> * >> *Elaine* >> * >> * >> >> >> >> 2009/7/14 jsx_consultant <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> >> >> Ini adalah pendapat pribadi embah tentang analisa2 yg pernah >>> dibuat Elaine: >>> - Analisa El umumnya bersifat jangka panjang dan didasarkan >>> analisa fundamental >>> - Analisa El umumnya banyak yang benar dengan berjalannya >>> waktu. >>> - Analisa El sering Contrarian dengan pendapat mayoritas >>> >>> Jadi menurut Embah, pendapat El tentang koreksi harus mendapat >>> perhatian, kalo soal benar atau tidak, biarlah waktu yg >>> menentukan. >>> >>> Karena prediksinya bersifat jangka panjang, bisa saja pada >>> suatu saat nampaknya analisa El salah, tapi pada akhirnya >>> bisa saja analisa El yg benar. >>> >>> Note: >>> - Berapa lamasih timeframe koreksi yg diberikan Elaine ?. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------------ >>> >>> + + >>> + + + + + >>> Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus >>> kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. >>> + + + + + >>> + +Yahoo! Groups Links >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> >> > >
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