Deflation also means lower cost.* I expect the commodity prices to decline*, thus giving benefit to property, cement, steel makers and construction companies. For Indonesia there are still a big space for *additional rate cuts, perhaps until 3-4%*, but not for US. * * *Let's separate between the ECONOMY and the STOCK MARKET. Like I said before, there is economic power shift from the western to Asia. Sooner or later the US economy will shrink, that will bring a temporary set back to ALL market (psychological effect) BUT the market will realize that Asia has its own 'business' and should rebound faster, leaving the US behind.* * * *Please avoid export based companies, stick to domestic ones. So, don't say Elaine tidak bisa changcut ya!! [?] the difference is only the timeframe and scale, that's all. You'll see massive bad news soon, the PIG market WILL be severely affected BUT don't worry, it's actually a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY.* * * *But I will not buy at this moment, I will wait for discount. BIG discount. The set back in China is actually healthy to stop the stock market from overheating since I know the market makers in China are using highly leveraged fund (as in the commodity futures)* * * *High commodity prices needs to be stop as it is dangerous for the economic growth. Why? because the unemployment rate is so high and the purchasing power is shrinking, so if ppl keep speculating the future market, we're going nowhere. The bad thing is IDX has many listed mining/plantation companies and the authority 'intervention' to the future market will indirectly affect IDX (I dunno, do you understand what I mean?). * * * *But I believe the big guys in the governement are doing the right thing, we just have to wait. Be patient. Please note there is also geo-political issue, not just economy. I will discuss it later, coz I'm hungry now. [?]* * * Elaine
On Wed, Jul 29, 2009 at 9:32 PM, YUTA <yuta.tizi...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > El, > > For sake of clarification, you've said earlier that the deflation spiral is > dead. Amongst those, property price should also be discounted, right? Then > why you choose property? Or, correct me if the property for only mid term > (say 6mths to 1yr) but still commodities for longer term (2yrs or longer)? > True? > > Advise, please. Thanks. > > ------------------------------ > *From*: Elaine Sui > *Date*: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 18:16:22 +0700 > *To*: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > *Subject*: [ob] Defensive and outperforming sectors for 2H09 > > *The economic outlook is not too good for 2H09 but not everything is bad. > I've made an analysis and the result is: > > 1. Property and related sector (cement, construction)**2. Pharmacy and > Health care* > * > * > These ones have been laggard but they will be shining soon and outperform > other sectors. I suggest if you want to do short/med term investing, you > focus on these. Forget commodity stocks. Please ask for JT or Tasrul > assistance for entry/exit points. Most of the them have small caps, so > they're quite volatile. Good for traders. > * > * > *Have a nice investing and good luck [?][?] See, I can be nice to traders > too. [?]* > * > * > *Elaine* > > > >
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