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Valuing Stocks
Posted By:Tom
Brennan
An explanation of how Wall Street
professionals value stocks could take all night, but Cramer has a simple rule
of thumb that any home-gamer can use.
Remember that E, the earnings,
multiplied by M, the multiple, equals P, the price. That’s the
price-to-earnings multiple. If a stock’s PE multiple is equal to or less than
its growth rate,
then that’s a cheap stock,
Cramer said.
A stock with a PE that’s twice the growth rate follows the opposite logic: Ten
percent growth on a 20 multiple stock probably means it is time to take
profits.
Cramer learned this rule through hard-won experience. He
knows that value investors are attracted to stocks close to their growth rate,
which creates a floor. On the high end, growth investors rarely pay more than
twice the growth rate, which creates a ceiling. Now the stockholder has a range
for selling his wares.
It’s good to hunt for value among
stocks with PEs that are about one times the growth, but be careful not buy
damaged goods. Plenty of inexpensive-looking stocks are actually quite pricey
if the fundamentals are declining and the earnings are going to miss the
estimates, Cramer said.
Again, the opposite is true. A stock
that’s trading with a multiple that is twice its growth rate looks expensive.
But if its earnings need to be revised higher, its multiple will come down and
it has more room to run.
Bottom Line:When
you value stocks, anything with a multiple that’s lower than the growth rate
should be presumed cheap. Anything with a multiple that’s more than twice the
growth rate is expensive.
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